Analysis And Prediction Of Electric Load Characteristics Of A County

With the development of industry and agriculture and the improvement of people's living standards,the demand for electricity is increasing.In order to meet the increasing demand for electricity,the scale of power system must be continuously expanded.In order to ensure the continuous and efficient operation of power system,however,accurate and reliable load characteristic analysis and prediction is an important way to ensure the security and economy of power system operation.Therefore,load prediction of power system plays an important role in the control and operation of power system.Based on the actual situation of a county,this paper makes a full investigation on typical industries.On the one hand,the main factors affecting load and load characteristics,such as the level of economic development,power consumption structure,electricity price,weather,distribution network transformation,are analyzed;on the other hand,based on the theory of time series method,the characteristics of load characteristics are never analyzed.In the same region and different years,combined with industry characteristics and structure,the power grid is forecasted and analyzed.Secondly,combined with the county economic development level,power consumption structure,electricity price,weather,distribution network transformation and other major factors affecting load and load characteristics,a county power grid load field investigation,collection of grid operation data for typical industry load characteristics change analysis.Finally,based on the theory of time series method,the power grid is forecasted and analyzed from different regions and years,combined with industry characteristics and structure.Specific research contents include the following aspects:(1)The basic classification and characteristics of load are analyzed,and the change of load characteristics is analyzed from the aspects of economic development level,residents' income,electricity price,temperature and climate,distribution network transformation and various users.Based on this,the load characteristic index is analyzed.(2)The load characteristics of the power system are analyzed from the commonly used load characteristics indicators,load characteristics changes and power load characteristics changes in various industries.The linear model of time series method is established,and the statistical characteristics of various models are analyzed in depth.Secondly,the basic steps of time series method and load forecasting are studied in depth,the ultra-short term load forecasting model is established,and the simulation experiment of ultra-short term load forecasting is carried out.The results show that the load of time series method is not too volatile.The prediction accuracy is high.