| In recent years,with the rapid development of China's economy,the prosperity of China's foreign trade and the acceleration of China's industrialization,the "China factor"is widely concerned by the world,and has an important impact on international trade and cooperation.As a derivative market of international trade,the dry bulk shipping market is affected by the world economy and has been in a low state since the 2008 global financial crisis,and the freight was increase in 2017.But when the market will recover has become a common concern in the industry.As a major importer in the dry bulk shipping market,China has important influence on market demand,such as its development status and policy measures,and further research on the influence of China's dry bulk importation can provide more reference for the planning decision of the relevant participants in the dry bulk shipping market.Firstly,in this paper,the definition of dry bulk shipping demand is analyzed,and it is clear that the prosperity of international trade has an important influence on the rise and fall of dry bulk shipping market,and the demand of dry bulk shipping market is also determined by countries' import volume of dry and bulk cargo,and the equilibrium relationship between supply and demand plays a decisive role in freight.Secondly,in this paper,the demand of dry bulk shipping market is analyzed in detail,which turns out that market demand generally presents growth trend,the three major dry bulk cargo shipping volume still occupy a large proportion.Therefore,by the improved grey relational model,this paper calculates the influence of the main importing countries on the total demand of Iron Ore,Coking Coal,Thermal Coal and grain shipping in the world,and obtains the definite sorting result.China ranks the number one on the influence of the total demand of Iron Ore,Coking Coal,Thermal Coal and grain in the world,which means the import trend of dry bulk goods in Chinawill have a great impact on the demand of the international dry bulk shipping market.Finally,this paper makes a forecast analysis of the import trend of the three major dry bulk cargo in China,and analyzes the impact on the market demand on the Future.This paper establishes the multivariate regression model of China's Iron Ore import,and predicts it will continue grow in 2018-2022.From a long-term perspective,because of economic development and energy structure adjustment,China's coal imports will show a downward trend.According to the reform of agricultural supply side of our country,the lack of high quality wheat and paddy will be reduced in the future.With the government optimizing the structure of corn planting in non-advantageous areas,the future of China's corn import volume will increase.Since the government expands the area of soybean cultivation and grants subsidies,the import of soybean will gradually decrease in the long-term perspective.Therefore,This paper provides a reference for market-related participants and their decision-making. |
PDF Full Text Request