Prediction Of Wind Power And Optimization Of Electric Thermal Gas Coordinated Operation In Virtual Power Plant Under Multiple Market

Developing new energy and improving energy efficiency is an effective way to solve the current energy crisis and environmental problems.New energy mainly refers to renewable and pollution-free clean energy such as wind power.But wind power has random uncertainty,improving the prediction accuracy of wind power is an important measure to achieve the economic and safety interconnection of wind power.The efficiency of energy utilization is to improve the efficiency of primary energy utilization by realizing organic coordination between different energy sources such as electricity,heat and gas in the system and the combination of different energy sources.Virtual power plant consisting of various distributed energy sources by advanced coordinated control,intelligent measurement and information communication technology is an important form of improving energy utilization efficiency in the systemFirst,on the basis of the existing wind power prediction technology,a wind power prediction method based on improved ARIMA model is proposed.The method uses ADF test to determine the stationarity of wind power time series,so as to the optimal differential number of wind power time series with different output characteristics to be transformed into stationary sequence is determined.The model parameters are determined by means of AIC criterion,Yule Walker equation and self covariance equation.The prediction results are modified by adding the limiting link.A wind farm actual output as an example for forecasting analysis,It is verified that the wind power prediction sequence has the same statistical characteristics as the original sequence Using error,mean square error and mean absolute error as predictive indicators,it is proved that the improved ARIMA model has better prediction effect than the original ARIMA model.The improved ARIMA model is used to predict the wind power output,PV output,electricity price and load in the virtual power plantIn order to better achieve complementary and coordinated energy resources in the integrated energy network,improve energy efficiency.Wind power generation,photovoltaic,micro gas turbines,gas boilers,energy storage,electrical load and heat load constitute a virtual power plant,the P2G unit is added,thus strengthening the connection between the electric,thermal and gas energy sources.The interruptible load is taken into account in the electric load.Interruptible loads and micro gas turbines provide spinning reserve services.The virtual power plant will expand from participating in the main electricity market to a variety of markets that are also involved in the hot market,spinning reserve market and natural gas market.Maximize profit for virtual power plants.A coordinated optimal dispatching model of electric thermal gas in a virtual power plant with multiple markets is proposed.The simulation results show that compared with the single market virtual power plant,it has better economic and scheduling flexibilityThe improved ARIMA model effectively improves the accuracy of wind power prediction.It will effectively reduce the reserve capacity of the system and improve the economic performance of the system.This method can also predict PV output,electricity price and load.Aggregating distributed energy to form a virtual power plant,realizing cogeneration and participating in various markets,can effectively improve energy efficiency and system operation economy.With the continuous development of China's electricity market,virtual power plants will have broad application prospects.