Study On Upgrading And Evolution Of Stock Industrial Land In Central Area Based On The Neighbors

In the 21 st century,as the process of urbanization continues to accelerate,China's cities ended the incremental expansion era with the "growth supremacism" as the paradigm,and entered the stage of "stock planning".Because of modern service industry the traditional manufacturing industrial zone dominated has fallen into decay and abandoned,and its economic,social and ecological aspects are facing transition.In the contradiction between the population explosion and the shortage of land in cities,the urban stock update has become the main development direction of future cities.So,the stock industry land has become the most potential urban land.The urban land updating provides new development opportunities for the city,and the research on the existing industrial land has great practical significance.Combined with new data environment and study method combing the city's stock of the related theories of industrial update transformation,found the stock industry research have focused on qualitative analysis and static description.Combined with machine learning method we use the POIs and historical data to build the stock of industrial evolution dynamic cellular automaton model,and analysis the characteristics and law of stock industrial evolution.First,with the theory of the stock industry transformation and renewal we summarized the mechanism and transformation model.Collecting and analyzing cases and theoretical,there are four kinds of stock industrial transformation models: business finance areas,professional center areas,creative culture areas and quality residential areas.The land use of the four modes lays for multi-scenario planning.In terms of the transformation mechanism,there are two types: spatial distribution and evolution type.The factors of them are divided into macro,middle and micro levels.This paper is mainly from middle level.Thirteen static factors and 1 dynamic factors were selected to study the role of adjacent land and surrounding facilities for the transformation of the stock industry.Based on the model of cellular automata,we studied the dynamic effect of stock industrial land evolution.Combining Random Forest to build the stock industrial-CA model,the simulation of the 2015 stock industry evolution by the 2005 stock industrial in the central area of Tianjin are relatively accurate.At the same time,we also predicted the evolution of the stock industrial land in 2025,and predicted the evolution of Nankai area and towing block,which are small and medium-sized.Finally,the paper puts some suggestions on the evolution of the stock industry in Tianjin city,and discusses the further optimization and development of the CA model.