Research On Flight Safety Evaluation Considering Criteria Correlation Based On FCM Hybrid Model

Flight safety is the most concerned topic of civil aviation transportation.In recent years,the global aviation accidents have occurred and the number of incidents is increasing.The high growth of air transportation and the severe pressure of air crash accidents urgently require that aviation transportation safety management be strengthened in theoretical research and application.Flight safety is the core of air traffic safety management,and hence,it contains significant research value to construct an effective method of flight risk assessment.Firstly,in order to accurately evaluate the risk of flight safety,this paper analyzed the theory and practice of civil aviation risk management at home and abroad,and an criteria evaluation system for flight safety is hierarchically established from four groups of factors including flight crew,aircraft state,flight environment and airline management.This paper proposed a fuzzy cognitive map(FCM)-based flight safety risk assessment method to address the dynamic feature in the flight risk assessment.A case study based on Yichun Air Crash,is used an example to demonstrate the feasibility of the method.Secondly,considering the criteria correlation and the hierarchy of the criteria system,a hybrid model of flight risk evaluation based on fuzzy cognitive map and network analytic hierarchy process is constructed.By using the inference mechanism of FCM,the dynamic evolution process of risk criterion is obtained through simulation.The decision making trial and laboratory method(DEMATEL)is implemented to analyze the key criteria factors influencing flight safety.Based on the identified key factors,different improvement scenarios can be designed and their effeteness can be simulated through FCM model to select the best risk mitigation policy.Finally,considering the external relations of the flight risk system,a FCM-Choquet hybrid model is constructed,which effectively solves the problem of the correlation between multiple systems.Choquet integral and ? fuzzy measure are used to evaluate the risk of each subsystem.Based on this,FCM inference method is used to consider the influence of each subsystem,and the system evaluation value which is built by Choquet integral is taken as the initial state value to simulate iteration.The final value of each state value of the system is the final evaluation value under the influence of each subsystem.This paper studied the flight safety of civil aviation,and relevant research methods at home and abroad.Taking the criteria correlation as the breakthrough point,the impact of the correlation between criterion on flight risk is analyzed.From the viewpoint of system simulation,the mathematical model considering the criteria correlation of single flight is constructed because of too many criterion and less research about risk assessment of each flight,which is convenient for air carriers to get a quick evaluation of flight risk and the active control of risk.