Application Of Risk Analysis In China Dam Safety

In recent years dam risk analysis and management established on the basis of the probability of dam failure and the estimation of loss of life and economic loss has been an advanced technology to dam safety management. In this thesis, firstly, dam risk analysis technology is defined systematically, and dam risk management at different levels is put forward in order to make full use of the limited funds to those reservoir dams and provide basis for dam remedial measures.Secondly, data of dam-break and other failure events in China is analyzed. Main dam failure modes in China are given, and historical failure data and event tree method are employed to estimate probability of dam failures.Thirdly, establishment of dam risk criteria in China is explored. A set of dam risk criteria, that is, individual risk criteria, societal risk criteria as well as economic risk criteria, is put forward.Dam-break flood analysis is conducted according to FLDWAV model of United States National Weather Service. Estimation of loss of life and economic loss due to dam-break is employed to analyze dam-break loss of Shaheji Reservoir.Finally, preliminary risk analysis of Shaheji Reservoir Dam is conducted, and the results are evaluated by use of the present dam risk criteria.