Ship Pilotage Probability Research In Fujiangsha Waterway Based On DHGF And Bayesian

The ship piloted national sovereignty,while maintaining national defense.Fujiangsha waterway belongs to the Yangtze River in Nanjing below 12.5m deepwater channel two projects.The new waterway started trial operation at 0:00 on February 25,2016.According to statistics,Fujiangsha waterway in 2006-2015 pilot accident is more concentrated,is the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province,one of the most pilot waterways accident;Fujiangsha waterway after the adjustment,the navigation area navigation environment improved navigation efficiency,but the ship flow of the distribution characteristics,to avoid the relationship between the traffic flow organization has undergone a corresponding change,which is a new challenge for the pilot.It is of great significance to study the risk of navigation in Fujiangsha channel to ensure the navigation safety and improve the navigation efficiency.In this paper,the risk conditions of Fujiangsha waterway are changed by using the method of brainstorming,pre-risk analysis and SHEL model,and use the subjective and objective information sources as the starting point.Based on the risk source system,the factor set of the evaluation index was established by Delphi method,and the four-element evaluation model of Fujiangsha water channel based on DHGF was constructed.The evaluation of the whole and the branch channel of Fujiangsha channel was carried out respectively.Based on the evaluation results,Targeted prevention and control measures and recommendations.The results show that the risk of piloting is higher,and the highest water in Fujiangsha north waterway is the lowest.The safety awareness of the pilot is the most important factor affecting the risk of navigation.In addition,in the navigation environment,the most important indicators that affect the risk of pilot water in Fujiangsha north waterway are anchorage.Fujiangsha middle waterway is the intersection area and Fujiangsha south waterway is the channel bend and intersection area.On the basis of risk identification and evaluation,the article carried out risk prediction research.One is based on Bayesian Network's pilot model of risk assessment of single pilot flight in Fujiangsha middle waterway,and verified by GeNIe software.According to the results,it is necessary to meet the requirement of pilot capability,which is the most basic condition.