Research On The Safety Risk Early Warning Models Of Airfield Service Support At The Water Aerodrome

With the gradual implementation of China's low open policy,the general aviation industry will gradually become an important part of China's aviation and economic development.The related industries of seaplane will also usher in the upsurge of development in China.At present,domestic civil seaplane industry just starts and faces a large number of problems.In particular,during the flight mission,the safety of the seaplane will be ensured,which will make the water aerodrome service support face a great deal of pressure.Therefore,taken the water aerodrome service support risk during the flight mission as the research object,through theoretical study and field research,the water aerodrome service support safety risks are identified,the early-warning index system for the safety risk of the water aerodrome service support is established.On this basis,the prediction early-warning model and comprehensive assessment early-warning model are constructed,and also control countermeasures are put forward.Starting from the model of "beforehand management",solve the difficulties in the safety management of the water aerodrome service support,and improve the risk management ability of the water aerodrome service support.This thesis mainly includes seven parts.The first part is the introduction,which expounds the research purpose,significance,research status at home and abroad,summarizes the research contents and methods.In the second part,define the concepts like the water aerodrome service support,and expound the theory of risk management and the principle of safety risk early warning.In the third part,after knowing the basic knowledge of water aerodrome service support and water aerodrome service support risks,use the grounded theory to explore the water aerodrome service support risk factors and clarify its structure.In the fourth part,based on the principle and construction of early-warning index system,use the Delphy method to select indexes,through expert consultation to determine the meaning and index threshold,and finally build a complete early-warning index system of the water aerodrome service support safety risks.In the fifth part,Grey Markov chain model is used to construct the prediction early-warning model of the water aerodrome service support safety risks,and then put forward the control countermeasures.In the sixth part,the Bayesian network is used to construct the comprehensive assessment early-warning model of the water aerodrome service support safety risks,and also put forward the control countermeasures.In the seventh part,summarize the research results and innovation points of this thesis,and expound the limitations and prospects for future research.The main innovation points of this thesis are summed up: after using the grounded theory to identify the safety risk of the water aerodrome service support and reveal the structure of the risk factors,the multi-level early-warning index system is built;build the reliable and practical comprehensive assessment early-warning model by the Bayesian network,and fully apply the causal reasoning and the diagnostic reasoning function of the Bayesian network model.