The Research Of Construction Project Risk Early Warning Of Jinzhou

The building industry has a special position in Chinese economic development.Among them,in recent years construction projects have a rapid development and grown in scale.It has more characteristics,such as requiring more capital,more construction period,more complex construction process,more various technologies,and more people involved in this engineering.Therefore,it has so many sources of risks,which can easily take risks,especially unforeseeable risks.If the project managers lack the knowledge of the risks of construction projects,they maybe ignores the impact of risks on architectural projects and also fails to take the scientific warning measures and control methods for project managers.So once the risk occurs,it will have a giant effect to the engineering,resulting in huge losses and unimaginable consequences.Firstly,this paper expounds the basic theory of constructional engineering through combing early warning literature materials.From the external and internal aspects of the construction project,there are many influencing factors by the analysis of the external and internal aspects of the construction project.Then it uses the Delphi method to chooes the risk index suitable for construction engineering project of Jinzhou.There are nine final indicators: standard rate of technical personnel level,growth rate of labor productivity of construction personnel,working rate of construction equipment,rate of delayed construction,rate of subcontracted project completion,growth rate of per capita construction area,rate of qualified completed projects,rate of inflation,and cumulative growth rate of commercial housing sales.It establishes innovatively the index system of Jinzhou construction project risk early warning.Secondly,it is used method of the time series analysis in this paper.It is the first time to use Auto-regressive Moving Average Model in this field of risk early warning.Moreover,it also constructis the risk warning model of construction engineering project for Jinzhou with the ARMA model.Thirdly,it is used to forecast the risk situation in 2020,and the predicted result is noteworthiness.Finally,we analyze the results of prediction.This paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions,such as strengthening enterprise risk management organization construction,improving the labor production efficiency of employees,strengthening the scientificity and advancement of construction plans,and strengthening the progress control of engineering projects.So that managers should plan ahead,and they will nip them in the bud.