Research On The Impact Of The Industrial Structure Change On Shipping Demand In Hubei Province

With China's economic development into a new normal historical stage,the regional economy and industrial structure are facing a profound adjustment.The optimization and adjustment of the industrial structure of Hubei province and the development of water transportation are complementary.The shipping demand comes from the development of the regional society,which is closely related to the regional economic development,the industrial layout and structure,as well as the economic relationship between the regions.The transformation and upgrading of Hubei's industry and the change of industrial structure will inevitably bring about the change of shipping demand.This paper mainly studies the influence of the change of industrial structure on the passenger demand and freight demand of waterway under the new normal condition in Hubei Province,analyzes the relationship between the three industrial structure changes and the influence degree and size of the three industrial structure changes on the shipping demand.Based on the theoretical research,this paper constructs the structural equation model of the influence of industrial structure change on shipping demand,selects the structural changes of the first,second and third industries,waterway passenger transport and freight demand as the latent variable.Based on literature review and research,selected the highest frequency of targeted index,and then use the Delphi method to filter out the final indicators to set up the index system.Select index from1996 to 2015 twenty years of data as the initial sample,test the validity and reliability of the standardization process of sample data by SPSS to ensure the reliability of the research data,then solves the structural equation model.The results show that the change of the three industrial structure in Hubei Province has a significant reverse relationship.The second and third industrial structure changes are more relevant,and the change of the first industrial structure has a relatively small impact on the change of the secondary and tertiary industries.In the impact of Hubei Province Waterway Freight demand,the change of the secondary industry structure has a significant positive to the change of the second industrial structure and has a negative relationship with the changes of the primary and tertiary industries.For the impact of waterway passengerdemand in Hubei Province,the change of the tertiary industry structure has a significant positive relationship with the change of waterway passenger demand,the first industrial structure change has a weak positive relationship,the second industrial structure change has a weak negative relationship.The innovation of this paper is that the research on the relationship between industrial structure change and transportation demand is mainly based on the linear regression model,the system dynamic mechanics model,the input-output model or the theory and method of econometrics.In this paper,the three industrial structure changes as the latent variable,using structural equation model to explore the relationship between changes in three industrial structure in Hubei province and shipping demand,including waterway freight demand and passenger demand,at the same time,which has a practical significance to study the application of structural equation model in water transport demand.