Study On The Law Of Coordinated Evolution Of Waterway Freight Demand And Economic Development

Waterway transportation,as one of the components of the comprehensive transport system,has become a national strategic industry because of its competitive advantages such as large capacity,long distance,low cost,low energy consumption and low pollution.China’s waterway transport potential is enormous,the waterway network is highly developed,and the waterway freight volume ranks first in the world.However,compared with developed countries,China’s waterway construction needs further improvement.The mainline shipping system of the Yangtze River is carrying more than40% of China’s inland waterway freight transports.With the economic development,the contradiction between freight demand on the Yangtze River mainline and the insufficient scale of the waterway is becoming more and more prominent.Rational upgrading of the scale of the Yangtze River mainline waterway has become a widely concerned issue.To clarify the evolution law between freight demand and economic development,and then make reasonable estimates on freight demand is the key to the improvement of the waterway.(1)Based on the freight volume and economic level of each country and China’s provinces and cities,the positive and negative correlation changes between total freight volume and gross domestic product(GDP)in different stages and regions;the negative correlation between freight intensity and industrial structure coefficient were analyzed.The cointegration relationship and Granger causality between freight intensity and industrial structure coefficients were also verified using quantitative methods.As a result,the quantitative equation of freight intensity and industrial structure coefficient was formed.Thus,an indirect method for forecasting waterway freight demand was established: first,use the regression formula of freight intensity and industrial structure coefficient to estimate the total freight volume,and then predict the demand for water transportation based on the transportation ratio.(2)Based on the waterway freight volume and economic level of each country and25 China’s provinces and cities,the positive and negative correlations between waterway freight volume and GDP at different development stages and regions were analyzed;the trend of waterway freight intensity decreasing with industrial structure upgrading was identified;and the correlations between waterway freight intensity and industrial structure coefficients were examined using quantitative methods.Then,combining with the situation of the Yangtze River,the Western River,the Rhine River and the Mississippi River,the cointegration relationship and Granger causality between waterway freight intensity and industrial structure were analyzed.The results show that the industrial structure is a key indicator that affects waterway freight demand.Thus,a direct method of waterway freight demand forecast was established: the industrial structure and other influencing factors are combined to establish a waterway freight demand forecast model.(3)A GA-BP neural network forecasting model was established,and the model was debugged and validated through different forecasting conditions and scenarios.After bringing in the industrial structure,the training and testing errors of the model are effectively reduced.As a result,the waterway freight volume of the Yangtze River mainline will reach 4.14 billion tons in 2040(expected to be 3.95 billion tons under the conservative scenario and 4.44 billion tons under the optimistic scenario).The waterway freight volume of Three Gorges ship lock will reach 249 million tons in 2040(expected to be 206 million tons under the conservative scenario and 294 million tons under the optimistic scenario).Therefore,it can provide support for the planning and upgrading of the Yangtze River waterway as well as the scale of new Three Gorges channel.