| At present,with the rapid advancement of the country's modernization,the new type of urbanization has reached a critical stage and the application of utility tunnel and PPP models has injected new vitality into it.The State Council promulgated the Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Construction of Urban Underground Comprehensive Pipeline(Guobanfa [2015] No.61)pointed out that it is necessary to encourage enterprises to invest in the construction,operation and management of utility tunnel,change the mode of investment and financing,and promote the practice of the PPP model.Practice shows that the combination of utility tunnel and PPP modes has effectively relieved the government's financial pressure on the construction of utility tunnel projects,gave full play to the creativity of social capital,allowed professionals to do their work,and provided a perfect platform for project construction and operations.However,due to the short development time of China's PPP model utility tunnel project,some problems were encountered in the implementation process,especially in risk management,because project risk identification is inaccurate,and risk sharing is flawed,which seriously affects the smooth implementation of the project.Some projects are on the verge of failure.This paper systematically analyzes and summarizes the research results in the field of PPP risk management.Based on literature analysis,case studies,expert surveys and other methods,we in-depthly identified 50 primary PPP model utility tunnel project risk factors in politics,legal policy,economics and financial affairs,and force majeure.Using the improved grey correlation analysis method,risk probability,risk loss,and ease of risk disposal were selected as risk evaluation indicators.Data processing was quickly implemented with the help of Matlab programming.The correlation ranking of risk factors was obtained and 11 key risk items were identified.The factors are force majeure risk,nationalization risk,construction cost risk,operating income risk,industry policy specification change risk,operation and maintenance management risk,project approval risk,residual value risk,demand risk,financing risk and inflation risk.Starting from the project operation mode,the relevant stakeholders of the PPP model utility tunnel project have been analyzed,and the government and social capital are identified as two risk-taking entities.Based on the principle of “risk is controlled by the most controllable party”,four evaluation indicators for risk prediction ability,risk assessment ability,risk management experience,and risk tolerance ability are identified,and a project risk preliminary allocation plan based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is constructed to achieve the initial division of risk-taking subjects.Based on the game process of government and social capital in the risk negotiation,the project risk re-sharing scheme of the incomplete information bargaining game model is constructed,and the share of the risk entities is determined.Under the principle of dynamic sharing,the risk tracking and sharing concept of the project implementation stage is proposed.Taking the W city PPP model utility tunnel project as an example,the method is applied and the risk sharing scheme is obtained,which verifies the operability of the research results.According to this article,the aim of the research has been broadened,and the risk management system of the utility tunnel project of PPP model has been improved,which has played a great role in promoting the implementation of the project. |
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