A Research On Ship Financial Lease Strategy Based On VaR

As one of the "troikas" that drives the ship financing market,ship financial lease is booming together with the shipbuilding industry and shipping industry in China.However,the financial crisis in 2008 caused a fatal blow to the ship financial lease.The traditional quantitative methods and decision-making methods have been severely challenged.Because of the typical volatility and periodicity of the shipping market,ship financial lease could not continue to rely on the traditional quantitative standards.A more effective way to evaluate the market risks is required to be established to promote the development of ship financial lease in China and contribute to the healthy growth of shipbuilding and shipping industries.According to the introduction of ship financial lease and the analysis of risk characteristics and the volatility of the relevant factors,it could be learnt from the thesis that the market risk is the risk that affects the ship financial lease project the most,and the market risk could be evaluated and predicted via the analysis of the volatility of the ship value and charterer rate.Based on the introduction of the project's pricing theory and traditional decision-making method,the sensitivity analysis,and example verification,it could be learnt that how to make decisions in ship financial lease project,what is the key element,and the inadequacy of the traditional decision-making method.At the same time,this thesis introduces the main way to evaluate the market risk,Value at Risk,and its measurement approach.Applying the VaR model and CARCH model in mathematical modelling of the ship financial lease project.Based on the data of the past 42 years from Clarkson research,and combine the mathematical modelling with normality test,stationarity test,correlation tests,ARCH tests,and other methods,to verified the model in an instance and compared the results obtained by the VaR method with the results of a traditional decision-making method.Finally,summarized the effect of using VaR in ship financial lease project management,how to apply VaR in ship financial lease project management and deficiencies of this thesis.Leant from the analysis of this thesis,we can understand that the VaR model can be well integrated with the management and calculation of market risk of ship finance lease projects,can effectively assess market risks,and play a decisive role in the decision-making management of ship financial lease projects,and provide an effective quantitative assessment method for healthy development of ship financial lease under fluctuating market conditions.