Research On Dynamic Management Of Annual Water Use Control Indicators In Shandong Province

The total amount of water used to control the red line is the first of the "three red lines." The total water use control indicator is a static indicator,while the annual water use control indicator is a dynamic indicator based on the total water use control indicator.The study of annual water use indicators involves multisectoral,multidisciplinary and multi-level.Reasonably determining annual water use control indicators is the basic guarantee for the rational use of water resources and the sound development of the regional economy.In this paper,considering the uncertainty of the annual precipitation in the region,the method and dynamic management method for the annual water control index corresponding to different frequency precipitation are proposed.Shandong Province and its six representative cities are used as research objects.The main research results are as follows:(1)The relationship between annual precipitation and surface and groundwater resources are determined.Using the annual precipitation series,determine annual precipitation frequency curve by the line fitting method and then determine annual precipitation of different frequencies.Establishing the equations of annual precipitation and surface water resource,annual precipitation and groundwater resource.Deduce the surface water and groundwater resource corresponding to annual precipitation at different frequencies.(2)The equations of annual precipitation and surface water resource,annual precipitation and groundwater resource are established.The relationship between annual precipitation and annual control index of surface water is a three-stage piecewise function.The relationship between annual precipitation and groundwater annual control index is a straight line(3)Obtain annual water control indicators for surface water and groundwater.Using Markov model to forecast the precipitation situation and determining the predicted annual precipitation.According to the relationship between annual precipitation of different frequencies and annual control index of surface water and groundwater,the annual control index of surface water and groundwater in this case can be determined.(4)The annual control indexes of surface water and groundwater are adjusted dynamically.The determination of annual water use control index not only consider the impact of annual precipitation,but also reflect the role of water storage at the beginning of the year.Water storage includes surface water storage and groundwater storage.Surface water storage is expressed by reservoirs and lakes and groundwater storage is reflected by groundwater depth.The specific value of the reduction(or increase)of the control index should be determined on the basis of the available amount corresponding to the water storage at the beginning of the year.This paper puts forward the basic idea of dynamic management of annual water use control indicators.(5)Conduct research on the method for determining annual water use control indicators in Shandong Province and its six representative cities.Taking Shandong Province and its six representative cities as the research objects,the relationship between annual precipitation of different frequencies and annual water use control indexes of surface water and groundwater in Shandong Province and representative cities are obtained.(6)Conduct a dynamic management study on annual water control indicators for representative cities in Shandong Province.The annual precipitation in 2017 is predicted.The annual water use control indicators of surface water and groundwater in 2017 are determined and the annual water use control indicators of surface water and groundwater are adjusted according to the water storage at the beginning of the year.The final results are compared with the original national control indicators,reflecting the practical significance of the research on the dynamic management of annual water use control indicators.