Research On Municipal Water Demands Forecast

The problem of the municipal water demands forecast is the key to the engineering design and management of municipal water supply system, which contains short-term prediction and mid or long-term prediction. First, the world and Chinese water resources situation is introduced in the research and the influencing factors to the change of urban water consumption. Secondly, time-series analysis method and Grey Forecasting Model are discussed about application and realization process in the municipal water demands forecast. Finally, at the case of the Hefei's water demands, the forecast model of annual water consumption is established by Grey Theory, while the model of urban water consumption prediction is established by SAS software. The results show that the two models have good application prospects, so that is suitable for the Hefei's water demands forecast. According to defects of Grey Forecasting Model, the correction to model's residual is put forward, and gained higher prediction in the Hefei's water demands forecast...