Research On Land Use And Land Cover Change In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

Land is an indispensable natural resource for human production and life.The use of land resources is also affected by economic development and population growth.The research of land use and land cover change is an important field in the study of global environmental change.Moreover,it also has great theoretical and practical significance for the rational and effective utilization of regional land resources.In this paper,20 years remote sensing image data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration land,from 1995 to 2015,are used to splice and reclassify for the analysis of the dynamic changes in this study area.The main methods and conclusions are as follows:(1)Using the data provided by the Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and its land use classification system.And splicing the data,unifying the coordinate system,tailoring and reclassifying the data,etc.,and finally,the data required by the research requirements in this paper are obtained.(2)By analyzing the three aspect of processed date,which are the change of extent land use,hanged rate of land use and land use degree,we can conclude that the land use change is the most severe in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2005,and land use change is relatively stable after 2005;The area of urban and rural construction land continued to increase,while the area of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,waters,and unused land showed a negative growth trend during the study period,and the magnitude of change in these six types is the urban and rural construction land;The comprehensive index of land use in Beijing and Tianjin in five years is around 260,which indicates that the overall land use level in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is at the upper-middle level.(3)Markov model,Grey Model and Artificial Neural Network are used to predict the demand of land use change in 2015.And compare the prediction result with the actual value of land use classification data in 2015.From the prediction results of the models,the Grey Model performs better-the largest relative error is 2.1%for urban and rural construction land;the prediction results of Artificial Neural Network are not ideal—the land with the largest relative error is 53.06%for urban and rural areas,industrial and mining;Markov's prediction effect is the best—the relative errors of all types of land is less than 1%,so the Markov model is finally used to simulate the land use situation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in 2020 and 2025,which provides a basis for further promoting the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.