Simulation And Prediction Of Land Use Change For Identifying Multi-Dimensional Features Of Urban Expansion In Dongguan

In the process of urbanization,the contradiction between land supply and demand has become increasingly severe with the growth of population and demand for land.Relevant support can be provided for decision-making in urban development,by grasping the trend of land conversion and exploring the historical land use cover change(LUCC)status of the study area.Therefore,exploring the transformation of urban land use,simulating and predicting the future distribution of LUCC,and evaluating urban expansion should be paid attention to.However,previous studies mainly focused on LUCC under the influence of a single environmental problem.There have been relatively few analysis of the urban LUCC system under the influence of multiple factors and the corresponding urban expansion evaluations.This study developed a hybrid approach for analyzing the historical land use status of cities,simulating and predicting the future spatial distribution of land use,and analyzing urban expansion status.In terms of LUCC analysis,land use gravity center model and land use transfer matrix were used to analyze the spatial-temporal features of land use,and land expansion analysis strategy(LEAS)model was used to identify the effects of urban inherent climatic,geographical,and socioeconomic drivers to LUCC.In terms of LUCC simulation and prediction,artificial neural networks(ANN)and cellular automata(CA)models as well as Markov chain model were used to simulate and predict the LUCC,respectively.In terms of urban expansion evaluation,a multiple criteria decision analysis(MCDA)framework,considering urban space,function,and urban self-organization,was proposed to evaluate the degree of urban expansion.To verify the reliability of the approach,Dongguan was selected as the study area.The main results of this study are described as follows:(1)Regarding the LUCC spatiotemporal features,building land was the main land use type in Dongguan City.From 2010 to 2020,the distribution of conversion between land use patterns in Dongguan was relatively equable,and the distance of gravity center transfer was not significant.Under the background of the socio-economic development,the proportion of urban building land increased rapidly from 28.08% in 1995 to 50.99% in 2010,with obvious conversion from other land-use types to building land.As the urbanization process slowed down,the conversion between land use patterns after 2010 was smaller than that before 2010.Compared with the area in other land-use types,the conversion area to building land was the largest,and the conversion area to arable land was the smallest.The indicator of per capita GDP was the main driving factor in variation of arable land area from 2010 to 2020.As the woodland in Dongguan was mainly distributed in mountain region,the proportion of woodland was closely related to the indicator of altitude.(2)Based on the ANN-CA models,and the Markov prediction model,the future land use situation of Dongguan city was predicted.Compared with the land use status in 2020,the area of ecological land would decrease.On the contrary,driven by socio-economic factors,the building land area would increase in 2035,although its growth rate would decrease.Given the expected decrease in forest land area,it is recommended that the government should establish protected areas,especially in the central mountainous areas.In the future,Dongguan should pay attention to maintaining ecological land in the development process in order to enhance the compactness of the city.(3)Based on the results of urban expansion evaluation,the urban expansion of Dongguan City has experienced a U-curve change from unreasonable to reasonable.The urban selforganization,represented by comprehensive ability of internal social development,infrastructure,and environmental governance,has been in a relatively reasonable stage due to the outstanding performance of economy.According to the evaluation and prediction of future urban development,the overall expansion and change in Dongguan would become reasonable,with the improvement of urban form and function.The hybrid approach for LUCC proposed in this study can systematically analyze LUCC and simulate the distribution of future land use patterns,supporting decision-making to promote and improve the systematic study of LUCC.The multi-dimensional evaluation framework can also improves the urban expansion evaluation research system.The suggestions for urban spatial regulation(e.g.,the establishment of additional urban ecological land protection zones)of Dongguan can also provide decision-making support for other cities.