Research On The Impact Of China's Electric Vehicle Development On Energy Demand Structure

In view of the development goals of environmental protection,energy-saving and emission reduction,countries around the world have vigorously developed electric vehicles.The Chinese government attached great importance to it and has successively issued a series of subsidy policies and development plans,which clarify the market position and technological development route of electric vehicles.With the support of national policy and the planning of industry,the number of electric vehicle ownership has increased rapidly.In 2018,the production and sales of electric vehicles in China ranked the first in the world,with the number of electric vehicle ownership in China reaching 2.61 million.The rapid development of electric vehicle industry will affect the structure of energy demand: on the one hand,the substitution of electric vehicle for oil demand can effectively reduce the dependence of China's oil on foreign countries;on the other hand,the increase of electric vehicle's power demand will effectively enhance the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption and have a positive impact on promoting the development of clean energy in China.Studying the future development scale of electric vehicles and the impact of electric vehicle development on the structure of energy demand can guarantee China's energy security and is of great significance for formulating energy development strategies.China's electric vehicle industry is still in the initial stage of development.This paper combines quantitative and qualitative analysis to predict the changes in the number of electric vehicles in China.Firstly,set up a PCA-Logistic regression model to quantitatively predict the changes of traditional car ownership in China.Referring to the advanced development experience of developed countries,combined with China's electric vehicle development policy planning,technical routes,major manufacturers' attitudes,consumer wishes and other factors,the PEST toolbased scenario analysis method is used to set up three scenarios of radical,reference and negative development for electric vehicles.The proportion of traditional cars is qualitatively analyzed.It is expected that the proportion of electric vehicles in China will be 25%,60% and 75% in 2030,2040 and 2050,respectively.According to the development scale of electric vehicles,this paper measures the power demand and oil substitution of electric vehicles under different development scenarios,and judges the impact on the structure of energy demand.The results show that the electric power demand for the large-scale development of electric vehicles can effectively promote the replacement of electric energy in China.The substitution effect of electric vehicles on oil consumption will reduce the proportion of oil consumption in China's energy demand and improve the energy structure dominated by fossil energy in China.Increase the proportion of clean energy in terminal energy consumption.Finally,based on the above research results,considering the development model of electric vehicles and its impact on the structure of energy demand,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the future adjustment of China's power development strategy and petroleum security strategy.