Research On Electric Power Substitution Demand Forecast And Technology Evaluation Model In Hubei Province

In Hubei Province,energy consumption is mainly coal and other fossil fuels,electricity accounted is for less than 13%,and its energy structure needs to be adjusted immediately.Electric power substitution is conducive to promoting energy reform,optimizing the energy structure in Hubei Province.The thesis studies the demand and technical evaluation of electric power substitution in Hubei Province,and it has positive significance to the work of electric power substitution.This thesis combs the energy and power related status of Hubei Province,it is found that the energy self-sufficiency rate of Hubei Province is less than 40% and the energy supply is seriously insufficient.In the energy supply,only the self-sufficiency rate of electricity more than 100%,indicating that the power resources in Hubei Province is more adequate,it's good for the work to carry out.The electricity demand forecast is analyzed from three aspects: energy consumption,electricity consumption and electricity ratio.This thesis combs the relevant factors that affect the demand of electricity,such as GDP,population,urbanization ratio,etc.,through the correlation analysis,confirmed the rationality of factor selection.Based on the trend of influencing factors and the characteristics of various forecasting methods,the time series and GM(1,1)model were used to predict the influencing factors of 2015-2020.This thesis compares the accuracy of multiple linear regression,SVR,BP neural network prediction model,and also compares the impact on the model by removing or not removing the correlation which is not strong factors.The results show that SVR model has high accuracy for small sample data.The results show that the SVR model has high accuracy for the small sample data,and the input factors in the energy consumption and electricity ratio forecast contain the factors that are not relevant,and the electricity consumption prediction needs to remove the influencing factors.The SVR model is used to forecast the energy consumption,electricity consumption and the proportion of electricity in Hubei Province in 2015-2020.The results show that energy,electricity consumption and electricity ratio in Hubei Province are rising,but the proportion of electricity is only 15% in 2020,which is far lower than the national level.Electric power substitution work in the next few years have greater room for development in Hubei Province,but there is a big challenge.In this thesis,AHP evaluation method is used to establish the model of electric energy replacement for Hubei province from three aspects: technology,economy and environmental protection.The proposed model provides a theoretical support for the development of electricity in Hubei Province.