Research On Technological Progress And Energy Intensity Based On Spatial Econometric Model

At the Paris Climate Conference in 2015,President Xi Jinping promised that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil energy consumption would peak around 2030,and that carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP would be reduced by 60%to 65%compared with 2005.In the 13th Five-Year Plan for China’s National Economic and Social Development,the target of energy saving and emission reduction is to reduce energy consumption per unit GDP by 15%between 2016 and 2020.In order to achieve this goal,China has taken many measures from the national level to the provincial level to promote technological progress and improve energy efficiency.However,there are great differences in the level of economic and social development,resource endowment and cultural background among autonomous regions.Therefore,in the process of formulating energy-saving and consumption-reducing policies,the government should consider the general factors affecting regional energy intensity and the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the influencing factors in different regions in order to ensure the effective implementation of policies and improve the effect of policy implementation.Based on the above background,this paper used the geographically and temporally weighted regression model to study the spatial heterogeneity of technological progress and energy intensity in China.On the basis of research on relevant research results and latest developments at home and abroad,firstly,the related theories and methods are analyzed from the four dimensions of technological progress and energy intensity,data analysis and spatial measurement model.Secondly,based on the perspective of time and space,The paper analyzed the development trend of China’s technological progress and energy intensity respectively.Then,considering the influence of time and space factors on technological progress and energy intensity regression analysis,the spatial autocorrelation of China’s energy intensity was studied.Finally,by introducing temporal and spatial factors,a spatio-temporal geographic weighted regression model of technological progress and energy intensity is constructed.The relationship between technological progress and energy intensity in China is studied by combining the actual situation of China and the collection and collation of relevant data in various regions.Based on the regression analysis,the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the impact of technological progress on energy intensity in China is discussed.The results show that:(a)There are significant differences i in the spatial distribution of technological progress and energy intensity among 30 autonomous regions;among them,he spatial distribution of energy intensity is higher in the West and lower in the east,and R&D expenditures,foreign direct investment and openness to the outside world is higher in the East and lower in the west,while the spatial distribution of human capital has no obvious characteristics,(b)Energy intensity has a significant positive correlation in space for a long time,and the spatial agglomeration effect is obvious;among them,the central and western regions are high-high agglomeration regions,and the eastern coastal regions are low-low agglomeration regions,(c)The spatial heterogeneity of China’s technological progress on energy intensity has a relatively stable change in time dimension.The specific performance is that the dominant factors affecting China’s energy intensity in 2005-2016 are from foreign direct investment,openness,and human capital.Transformed into research and development expenses,(d)The temporal heterogeneity of the impact of technological progress on energy intensity in China has a large variation in spatial dimension.The specific performance is that R&D expenditure is high in the west and low in the east,and foreign direct investment is high in the east and low in the west.Human capital is relatively scattered and there is no obvious aggregation.