Study On Investment Decision Of Wind Power Project System Based On Real Options Analysis

Energy and environment issues are two major problems facing human beings at present.New energy is undoubtedly an important breakthrough to cope with the energy crisis and climate change.And wind power is currently the new energy technology with the greatest potential for large-scale commercial development,with excellent characteristics of no energy consumption,no emissions,no pollution and so on.China is the world's largest carbon emitter.Energy conservation and emission reduction are inevitable choices for sustainable development.On the other hand,China is also rich in wind energy resources,so the development of wind power is a very reasonable choice.In recent years,China's wind power industry has started from the original stage of extensive quantitative expansion to a new stage of high quality,low cost,sustained,stable and efficient growth.Therefore,the reasonable guidance of wind power project investment is the key to implementing ecological civilization construction and coping with the new normal of low-carbon economy.In the past decade,wind power has developed rapidly under the support of national policies and become a hot investment in new energy.However,with the development of wind power scale and industrialization,the difficulty of wind power grid connection has become increasingly prominent,and the use of energy storage system to control the intermittent and random fluctuation of wind power has become the trend of future development.In view of these two stages of wind power development,this paper constructs two models of wind power investment without considering energy storage and wind power investment with considering energy storage respectively.Wind power investment model without considering energy storage is the mainstream of wind power investment in recent years,which is committed to solving green power generation problems by using wind power.Considering uncertain factors such as carbon price and market electricity price,the model constructs a quadrinomial model;,and determines evaluation indexes such as investment value and carbon critical price and corresponding investment decision rules.The process of solving the model is analyzed by an example,and the investment value and carbon critical price under the real option method are calculated.The results show that the real option method is more suitable to deal with uncertainty than the traditional cash flow discount method,and can evaluate the wind power investment decision more accurately.The current market environment is not enough to support investment in wind power projects that do not consider energy storage,and investors should wait for a rise in carbon prices,an increase in electricity price subsidies or a decrease in investment costs.Under the current background of price liberalization and lower subsidies,carbon trading can continue to encourage wind power investment,and carbon trading market is an effective substitute for price subsidy,but it must ensure the stable development of carbon trading market.Wind power investment model considering energy storage includes wind power system and energy storage system.Wind power system is used to solve power generation problem and energy storage system is used to solve grid connection problem,which is the mainstream of wind power investment in the future.Considering the uncertain factors such as carbon price,market electricity price and investment cost,the model selects dynamic programming and the minimum Monte Carlo Simulation method to solve the problem,and takes the investment value and the optimal investment time as the evaluation index.The investment value and optimal investment time of wind power investment project considering energy storage are calculated by example analysis,and the influence degree of initial electricity price and annual generation hours on investment value and optimal investment time is analyzed by sensitivity analysis.The results show that Monte Carlo Simulation method is more suitable to deal with complex investment with multiple uncertain variables,which effectively overcomes the disadvantages of binary tree option pricing method,and therefore is more suitable for wind power investment decision model considering energy storage.Wind power investment considering energy storage can not only calm the fluctuation of wind power and solve the problem of grid connection,but also increase the investment value and stimulate investment of wind power projects.Therefore,under the background of large-scale wind farms becoming the mainstream,wind power investment considering energy storage will become the general trend.In order to better promote wind power investment,the government can take the following measures: promote technological progress and provide necessary support for wind power and energy storage technology;Improve carbon emission trading market and promote the stable development of carbon market;Levy environmental protection tax to increase economic incentives for wind power industry;Create a level playing field.