Investment Decision Study Of Asymmetric Duopoly Power Producer's Capacity

With the rapid development of the global economy,the uncertainty and competition of the enterprises are also increasing,and the investment decision of power generation is characterized by strong uncertainty,irreversibility and competitiveness.When evaluating the investment decision-making,traditional investment decision-making method cannot accurately assess the value brought about by uncertainty factors,it management decision lacks of flexibility;While the real option method,which consider the flexibility of the investment project management,does not take into account the competitive role of the market,it cannot accurately assess the value of the investment project.In contrast,the option game method,which considers the investment project uncertainty,irreversibility and competitiveness and other factors,can overcome limitations and shortcomings in traditional investment decision-making method.and real option method,it is a more scientific modem investment decision-making method.First,this paper briefly describes some related theories about the traditional investment decision method,real option method and option game method and introduces the research result of the three methods,we compares the advantages and disadvantages of the three methods.Based on the deep understanding of these methods,and through applying the theory of option game analysis method,this paper obtains the double oligopoly capacity investment decision-making model under the situation that the operating cost are asymmetric,and we also obtain the values of investment threshold of the leader and the follower;Considering the situation that the investment decision-making process in the enterprise investment cost may be inconsistent,this paper introduces the investment cost asymmetry,and constructs the double oligopoly capacity investment decision-making model where the operating costs and investment costs are asymmetric,the value of the investment threshold of the leader and the follower are obtained.Finally,we use MATLAB software to simulate and analyze the sensitivity of each parameter to the investment threshold of the leader and the follower.The results indicate that,1)low-cost and high-cost of generation enterprises have incentives to invest,but the high cost of generator operating costs compared to the low cost of generation enterprise is high,it will choose to follow the investment.2)with increasing power demand fluctuations,the investment threshold of the leader and the follower will increase.