Research On Power Grid Vulnerability Prediction Based On Large-scale Consumption Of Renewable Energy

With the rapid development of economy,a series of problems are becoming increasingly prominent.such as the tightening of the total reserves of resources and the deterioration of the global environmentrwhich pose a serious threat to energy security and the ecological enironment.and affect and restrict the rapid development of China's economy and society.Therefore,focusing on building a stable,clean,low-carbon and efficient modern energy system and developing renewable energy related technologies has become an important way to break through the current energy and environmental dilemma.Due to the characteristics of randomness,intermittency.uncontrollability and output instability,renewable energy aggravates the burden of safe and stable operation of power grid.The power grid based on large-scale consumption of renewable energy is a complex system,of which vulnerability problem is the top priority.Therefore,it is necessary to forecast the vulnerability of the power grid to consume large-scale renewable energy,predict the adaptability of the power grid to renewable energy in advance,find out the weak links of the system,and take targeted measures to ensure the stable operation of the pow er grid with the consumption of large-scale renewable energy.This paper systematically and scientifically studies the power grid vulnerability with large-scale consumption of renewable energy.Firstly,the relevant research contents at home and abroad about the renewable generation and consumption,power grid vulnerability and its prediction were systematically sorted out.In addition,the research status and development trend were summarized.Secondly,the relationship between the consumption of renewable energy and the vulnerability of power grid was analyzed.The vulnerability theory and intelligent prediction theory that may be involved in the research of power grid vulnerability prediction were expounded,which laid a theoretical foundation for the determination of prediction model.Then on the basis of theoretical analysis of power grid vulnerability prediction,combined with a series of impacts of renewable energy grid-connection on power grid vulnerability,the factors that influence the vulnerability of power grid were analyzed comprehensively through three dimensions,which were energy resource exposure,power grid load sensitivity and the power system adaptability.Meanwhile,a power grid vulnerability prediction index system based on large-scale consumption of renewable energy was established.Finally,a power grid vulnerability prediction model for large-scale consumption of renewable energy was constructed based on the neural network,and the existing model was optimized by genetic algorithm to make the prediction results more scientific,accurate and objective.In summary,the power grid vulnerability index system and the prediction model for large-scale consumption of renewable energy are established in this article,and a typical power grid in the northwest region of China is selected as an example to illustrate and demonstrate the effectiveness and practicability of the prediction model.The corresponding suggestions are given according to the calculation results,which provide the effective basis for the planning layout of renewable energy,safe operation of power grid and the scientific management.