| The Jing-Jin-Ji region and the Yangtze River Delta region are representative economic growth poles in the north and south of China respectively.Due to different natural conditions and development models,the total water resources,total water consumption and influencing factors in the two regions are quite different.It is extremely important to clarify the relationship between economic development and water use in the two regions and to make reasonable predictions about the future water consumption of the two regions.On the basis of a large amount of literature and limited data,this paper divided the water structure into agricultural water,industrial water,domestic water and ecological water.The factors affecting water consumption are effective irrigation area,total surface water,urbanization rate,total population,three industry GDP and the proportion of three industry GDP.On this basis,the gray correlation analysis method is used to calculate the correlation between the total water consumption and the water structurein 2005-2016,water structure and influencing factors in the two regions,using the mean GM(1,1)model,the water consumption of the two regions in the next five years is predicted,and the research contents of the two regions are compared and analyzed.The results are as follows:(1)The present situation and problems of water resources development and utilization in the two regions were compared and analyzed.The results show that:in the Jing-Jin-Ji region,due to less rainfall,large population and resource pressure,water resources carrying capacity has exceeded the warning line;although there are many rainfall in the Yangtze River Delta,due to the development of agriculture,numerous cities,industrialization and urbanization,many cities are faced with the pressure of water shortages.(2)Comparative analysis of the changes in total water consumption,water structure and various influencing factors in the two regions,and using gray correlation analysis method to calculate the correlation between total water consumption and water structure,water structure and influencing factors.The results show that the total water consumption in the Jing-Jin-Ji region is fluctuating decline,with the largest amount of agricultural water consumption falling,while the total water consumption in the Yangtze River Delta region is fluctuating rise,with the largest amount of domestic water consumption rising.The domestic water consumption has a greater impact on the total water consumption in the Jing-Jin-Ji region than in the Yangtze River Delta region.The impact of the urbanization rate on the agricultural water consumption in the Yangtze River Delta region and the total surface water impact on domestic water consumption is greater than that in the Jing-Jin-Ji region.Because the proportion of domestic water consumption in the Jing-Jin-Ji region is greater than that in the Yangtze River Delta region.The urbanization rate and surface water utilization rate in the Yangtze River Delta region are higher than those in the Jing-Jin-Ji region.(3)The water consumption in the two regions in the next five years is predicted separately.The results show that the water consumption in the two regions has declined in the next five years.Although the decline is not large,it indicates that both regions have taken corresponding measures to save water and according to actual conditions to ensure the sustainable use of water resources. |
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