Research On Safety Investment Decision And Evaluation Method Based On Risk Preference

The constant change of information flow strengthens the uncertainty of risk.In this case,the decision maker replaces the utility maximization under the rational state with the subjective expected utility,which will make the actual utility deviate from the expectation.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the safety investment decision-making and evaluation methods under the condition of bounded rationality to improve the enterprises'understanding of the effect of safety investment and improve the level of safety production.In this paper,on the basis of the safety investment theory,according to the characteristics of the industrial and mining enterprises' safety investment projects,combined with value at risk and conditional value method of economics,to study the enterprise safety investment decision-making and evaluation method.Based on the optimization principle of enterprise safety investment and the risk preference of decision makers,a safety investment decision model based on VaR is constructed.This model can select a scheme with the minimum risk value from multiple feasible safety investment schemes,and this scheme can be more difficult to produce the worst case than other schemes.On the basis of the safety investment decision,the optimal investment scheme is evaluated and its feasibility is verified.The non-economic benefits that are difficult to be quantified are divided into five aspects:psychological,environmental,social,liability risk and enterprises' safety reputation.The applicability of conditional value method to the non-economic benefits of safety investment is analyzed,and the evaluation steps of the non-economic benefits of safety investment based on CVM are determined.In order to further study the safety investment decision and evaluation methods,this paper analyzes and studies the scaffolding safety protection measures project of a construction enterprise in shaanxi province.Case analysis shows that:(1)the safety investment decision of the enterprise is under the condition of bounded rationality,should consider the volume of investment,risk preference,the original risk state and risk development rule.The investment benefit of optimal scheme is greater than the input costs,meeting the safety investment optimization principle,and the scheme is feasible;(2)Conditional Value Method can assess the non-economic benefit of safety investment from employee safety requirements and safety of satisfaction,reducing the risk of casualties,improving the safety of working environment,establishing the higher safety level for social stability,reducing the risk of decision makers responsibility and to improve the enterprises'image and status of five aspects.It makes up for the situation that the non-economic value of safety investment is difficult to measure,and can provide more comprehensive and scientific investment suggestions for the safety investment of industrial and mining enterprises.