Using Agent-based Model To Explore The Diffusion Of Electrical Vehicle Under The "NAFC & ZEV Credit" Policy In China

Recently,electrical vehicles are processing a rapid increase under the subsidy policy and other incentives.However,the whole market is still short of competence as there are amounts of technologically backward products.In order to promote the development of electrical vehicles and other new energy vehicles,our government decides to take the policy of “NAFC & NEV CREDIT”.Considering the fact that researches on diffusion of electrical vehicle are based on subsidy policy mainly,which is about to be abandoned at the beginning of the “NAFC & NEV CREDIT” policy,we decide to use agent-based model to simulate the different diffusion process of new energy vehicle.We build a dynamic multi agent model which includes the interaction of vehicle agent,manufacturer agent and consumer agent.Afterwards,the model undergoes sensitivity analysis about seeding effect.We find that seeding effect is quite influential.Finally,we successfully simulate the diffusion process of electrical vehicle in different city under different city hypothesis.We find that the diffusion in developed city is better than that in developing city and less developing city.Moreover,we built a system dynamic model to model the whole market needs.Innovatively,the model consider two scenarios—developing electrical vehicle and abandoning electrical vehicle.By comparing the results of the two scenarios,we obtain the reduction of carbon emission.