Study On Transportation Energy Consumption And Carbon Emission Based On System Dynamics

In the past two decades,the transportation industry is one of the industries with the largest energy consumption and the fastest growth.It is necessary to formulate policies in transportation,which are major to balance the transportation industry with energy constraints and environmental pollution.And it is an inevitable choice for China to take the road of sustainable development.As a result,it is quiet significance to research the system of transportation energy consumption and carbon emission.Existing studies on transport energy consumption and carbon emissions are mostly focused on a single transport mode,and most of the research object are urban transport system.In addition,most of research methods are quantitative analysis.There is a lack of macro-simulation of the entire transportation system.In view of the shortcomings of previous research,this paper adopts the system dynamics method to study the transportation energy consumption and carbon emission system.First of all,on the method of combining qualitative and quantitative system dynamics,based on the characteristics of transportation system such as time delay,non-linearity and multiple feedback,the applicability of system dynamics method to the research problem was expounded.Secondly,the overall status of transportation in China was analyzed,such as transportation infrastructure,transportation scale and transportation structure.Based on the data from China Energy Statistical Yearbook and the IPCC guidelines,the "bottom-up" method was used to estimate the transportation carbon emissions.Then,the key factors affecting transportation energy consumption and carbon emission are analyzed,such as transportation and economy,transportation and energy,and transportation and environment.From the practical level,the transportation energy consumption and carbon emission system was divided into four subsystems,economy,transportation,energy and environment,and determined the internal structure of each subsystem and the feedback relationship between each subsystem.Then,on this basis,the system flow diagram of the transportation energy consumption and carbon emission system was established.The model parameters were assigned and extreme conditions were set to verify the authenticity and reliability of the model.Finally,through the context analysis method,twenty-one scenarios(including 3combination scenarios)were set up to analyze transportation energy conservation and emission reduction policies,such as structural policies,technical optimization,and management policies,and simulate the implementation effect of transportation energy conservation and emission reduction policy.The results show that the system dynamics model of transportation energy consumption and carbon emissions establish in this paper can simulate the traffic energy saving and emission reduction policies,such as structural policy,technical optimization and management policy.In addition,this model can provide a theoretical basis for the implementation effect of different transportation energy conservation and emission reduction policies,and provide a powerful support tool for the government to formulate transportation energy conservation and emission reduction policies.