Research On The Reduction Potential Of Residential Carbon Emission In Xi'an Based On A System Dynamics Model

The climate problem caused by urban carbon emissions has become one of the major challenges hindering the sustainable development of social economy,in which urban residential carbon emissions account for a large proportion of social carbon emissions.So many scholars take building carbon emission reduction as the focus of research,but most of the current research focuses on the measurement and analysis of carbon emissions from individual buildings,or the static analysis of residential carbon emissions by a single influencing factor.Residential carbon emission is a complex dynamic system,and there is a correlation between the influencing factors.At present,there is a lack of research on the mechanism of the influence factors and the dynamic influence of its changes on the residential carbon emissions.This paper is based on the theory of 3e and the theory of system science.On the basis of system dynamics model,the interaction among society,economy,energy and environment is studied,and the simulation prediction model of residential energy consumption carbon emissions is established by taking Xi'an as an example.Simulating the changing trend of residential carbon emissions in Xi'an in recent years,providing theoretical basis and reasonable suggestions for reducing urban residential carbon emissions.The findings are summarized as follows:(1)Based on the identification of various factors affecting carbon emissions from residential buildings,this paper classifies them into four categories: social life,energy utilization,economic development and environment.Through statistical analysis of all kinds of influencing factors,it is found that the trends of the influencing factorsare similar.Therefore,this paper uses VENSIM software to construct the system dynamics model to study the relationship between the influencing factors and the dynamic influence on carbon emissions.Through the structural test,historical test and sensitivity test of the model,it is concluded that the model is reliable.And according to the current development trend,Xi'an residential carbon emissions will continue to rise year by year.(2)Through adjusting and controlling different parameters to simulate the scheme,it is concluded that the economic development has a significant impact on the growth of residential carbon emissions,and increasing the input of science and technology is an important way to restrain the carbon emissions of urban residential buildings.Raising the low carbon consciousness of residents plays an important role in reducing the carbon emissions of residential buildings,and the adjustment of energy structure and the expansion of greening area have certain effects on reducing carbon emissions of urban housing,but the effect is limited.However,it will have some limitationas to control a certain parameter alone,and different emission reduction policies are needed to achieve the low-carbon development of Xi'an residential.So,Integrate the various factors in the emission reduction plan to make a comprehensive adjustment,and analyze the urban housing.(3)According to the simulation results,the development of per capita GDP and urbanization are important factors to promote the increase of residential carbon emissions,reduce the intensity of energy consumption,and enhance the awareness of low carbon,and optimizing the energy consumption structure are the key factors to realize the carbon emission reduction of residential buildings.Based on the economic development perspective,urbanization perspective and carbon source control perspective,this paper puts forward corresponding emission reduction strategies in order to reduce the carbon emissions of urban residential buildings in Xi'an and promote the low-carbon development of residential buildings.