Research On The Development Of China's PV Industry Trend Under The Influence Of Trade Barriers

With the continuous development of the economy and society,renewable energy including photovoltaic power generation has become a strategic choice for China to ensure energy security,control environmental pollution and cope with climate change.At present,China's photovoltaic product manufacturing has become the important part of world's new energy supply structure.However,the situation of trade barriers for China's PV products has become more and more serious with the prevalence of international trade protectionism.At the same time,the change of domestic PV policy from “quantity control” to “quality control” has further squeezed the development space and caused overcapacity of photovoltaics.It is particularly important to open up the international market.How to form a path of sound development of China's photovoltaic industry under international trade barriers and break the barriers to trade barriers,the situation is urgent.So the research on the development of China's PV industry under the influence of trade barriers has considerable practical value.Firstly,The status quo of international trade barriers in China's photovoltaic industry is analyzed from the perspective of quantity and structure.Secondly,The causal relationship between trade barriers and China's PV product exports was resolved through the trade gravity model.Then a system dynamics model has been built under qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.System dynamics flow diagram can be constructed through the causal cycle analysis and simulated by Vensim software.The results mainly analyze the results of China's PV export sales,China's PV industry capital accumulation and China's PV installed capacity under different levels of trade barriers.Effective recommendations are presented based on the simulation results.The following main conclusions can be drawn:(1)China's PV industry is further consolidated in the global market,but the foreign trade situation is still not optimistic(2)The number of international trade barriers in the first phase is inversely related to the export volume of China's photovoltaic products.Then it is found that the export structure of China's photovoltaic products is more biased towards developed countries.However,the value of China's PV product trade potential in developed countries(regions)has generally declined,and the trade potential of developing countries(regions)has shown significant differences.(3)In model simulation,medium tariff(20%)can be used as a threshold tariff,which should be focused on.In dealing with the impact of trade barriers,power demand factors,policy factors,and technical funding factors play the most important role.