Trade Potential And Analysis On Influencing Factors Of Chinese Auto Industry Export Under The Background Of "The Belt And Road"

In recent years,China's auto industry has developed rapidly,production and sales are more than 28 million in 2016,the first in the world for eight consecutive years.But affected by unfavorable factors such as the world economic environment,China's automobile exports started to decline from 2012.“The Belt and Road” strategy put forward,provides an unprecedented good opportunity to exports of China's automobile industry.The auto market of countries along “the Belt and Road” has huge potential,but the huge market does not mean that the blue ocean,China's auto industry needs to adjust measures to local conditions for the establishment of strategy,so it is very important to research effect factors and trade potential of China's auto industry export to “the Belt and Road” district.Based on the extension of the trade gravity model and the data of China's auto industry exports to “the Belt and Road” district from 2007 to 2015,this paper researches the main effect factors of exports of China's auto industry,and measures export trade potential of along the countries.The empirical shows that,the importer's per capita GDP and population are important effect factors of exports of China's auto industry,under the condition of the other factors unchanged,importer's per capita GDP and population respectively increased by 1%,will make exports of China's auto industry respectively increased by 1.03% and 1.05%.Importer trade dependency and China's GDP are positively related with exports of China's auto industry,their elastic coefficient are respectively 0.43 and 0.16.The estimation result of transportation cost and whether to join China free trade area is abnormal,the former is due to China's extensive input of infrastructure in “the Belt and Road” district,which makes transportation costs is not the main obstacle of exports of China's auto industry,the latter is due to China free trade area built later,every aspect is not mature enough.Finally,on the basis of statistical analysis and empirical research,the paper draws a conclusion,and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.