Reserch On Measure Of The Value Of Travel Time Reliability

The value of travel time reliability(VOR)is the premise of traffic forecasting model optimization,the basis of traffic project evaluation,and the prerequisite for reasonable pricing of travel mode.In the past,scholars generally used linear utility functions to conduct qualitative research on the purpose of trip,but couldn't reflect all the actual conditions,and the measures were inaccurate.In order to make up for the above shortcomings,this paper will quantify the purpose of the trip,using the nonlinear utility function to measure VOR.According to the influencing factor of travel purpose,the influence of travel time limit,penalty cost and historical delay time on VOR is proposed.The composition of historical delay time was determined through the Shenzhen VOR Questionnaire Survey.The definition of the three evaluation indicators is clarified,and the economics principle is used to clarify the specific influence mechanism of arrival time limit,penalty cost and historical delay time from two aspects of change range and change trend.A nonlinear VOR model is established.The reason for adopting the nonlinear utility function is clarified,and the nonlinear influence form of the three evaluation indicators is added to the basic travel planning model to obtain the improved model.Using the VOR data of Shenzhen,the Nlogit software was used to calibrate the original itinerary planning model and the improved model,and compare the goodness of the two models.Through the unified model calculation,VOR of bus,subway,network car and private car is obtained,and then the relationship between each evaluation index and VOR is analyzed.Since VOR is an important reference for the pricing mechanism of various transportation industries,the paper studies the application of online car-hailing pricing.Based on the original pricing structure,VOR is considered,and the phenomenon of the change of the sharing mode of each travel mode and the change of the turnover of the network car under different price schemes is analyzed.