A Study On The Time Value And Reliability Value Of Urban Resident Trip

Travel time and travel time reliability of public transport are the important indicators of quality and attractiveness of urban transit systems, which will influence the outcomes of transit priority policies. The transport fare in our country is low due to the government subsidies for transit operation all the time, which has a significant advantage of economics. To travelers, the travel time cost and reliability cost of public transport are the important to the behavior of transit choice, they are also the theoretical basis of influence mechanism of travel behavior. Therefore, this paper has a deep study on value of time and value of travel time reliability of public transport travel.Firstly, we focus on the process of public transit travel which includes walk time to and from the bus station, waiting time, in-vehicle time and transfer time to construct a model for analyzing the weights and values of different stages of travel time for public transport. In this model, we calibrate the weights and values of different stages of travel time from the perspective of broader public groups and different user groups separately using the stated preference survey data of urban public transport users in Kunming. The results indicate that out-of-vehicle time has a greater effect on bus travel behavior than in-vehicle time and the weights of transfer time, wait time, walk time to and from the bus station are respectively valued 3.0,1.9, 1.6 times in-vehicle time.Secondly, we study the distributions of walk space-time threshold to and from bus station based on the survey data of time tolerance values in different travel time which walk to and from bus station, and we construct a discrete choice model to study the impact of individual differences and travel time on space-time threshold by taking into the affecting factors of walking space-time threshold to and from bus station.Lastly, with the unreliability of travel time for early arrive time, early arrive probability, late arrive time and late arrive probability, we implement the stated preference survey of public transit travel time reliability using orthogonal design principle. Respectively, we evaluate and analyze the travel time reliability by mean-variance model and scheduling model, and study the effects of different user groups, different income groups and different academic background groups on the heterogeneity differences of travel time reliability using scheduling model.