Research On Risk Assessment And Risk Sharing Of Railway Projects Based On PPP Mode

In recent years,the demand for railway construction has continued to grow with the rapid development of China's economy.According to China's "medium and long-term railway network planning",by 2020,the railway mileage should reach more than 100,000 km,and to achieve this goal,it is necessary to invest more than one trillion yuan.It is difficult for the government to bear such a huge investment alone.In order to alleviate the government's financial pressure,the PPP(Public-Private-Partnerships)model is introduced,that is,the government and social capital cooperation.The PPP project in railway construction has the characteristics of complex structure,many stakeholders,long cycle and insufficient experience.The risk management research will be more complicated than the general railway project,and scientifically identify,evaluate and share the risk of railway PPP projects.Is the key to the success of the project.Therefore,in order to make the PPP model successfully applied in China's railway field,this paper solves the dilemma faced by China's railway construction,and conducts a comprehensive and in-depth study on the key risk management of the successful implementation of the railway PPP project.Firstly,it analyzes and summarizes the research on risk management of railway PPP projects at home and abroad.On this basis,it studies the characteristics of railway PPP mode and the background and advantages of its application in railway field in China.Then it analyzes and summarizes the concept of risk management of railway PPP project.Characteristics;Secondly,comprehensively identify the risks,use the expert survey method and empirical analysis method to summarize the risk list of the railway PPP project,as the risk evaluation index,compare and analyze the applicable scope of the commonly used evaluation methods,select the gray fuzzy theory,establish After the risk assessment model,the risk sharing mechanism framework is constructed,the risk sharing process is determined,the risk is initially shared based on the risk preference coefficient,and the game theory of bargaining under incomplete information is applied to establish a risk sharing model.On the basis of theoretical research,the case study of the Hangshaotai PPP high-speed railway controlled by China's first private capital is taken as an example.According to the gray fuzzy risk assessment model established in the previous paper,the risk evaluation level of the Hangshaotai high-speed railway is calculated as “medium”;based on the risk preference coefficient,the risk shared and the risk alone are divided,and the bargaining risk is constructed according to the previous article.The contribution model calculates the proportion of risks that the government and the private sector need to bear for each of the 10 shared risks.Analyze the results,give risk prevention advice,and improve the possibility of successful railway PPP projects.This paper provides a series of research on the risk assessment and sharing of railway PPP projects,which provides action guidance and theoretical support for the application of PPP model in China's railway sector.