Research On Consumer Demand Forecast Of Civil Vehicles In Xinjiang

With the development of the national economy and the improvement of people's quality of life,the demand for automobile consumption has grown rapidly in recent years.Automobile sales have played a positive role in promoting the regional automotive industry and related service industries and industrial chains.The automobile consumer market has occupied an important position in economic development.In recent years,Xinjiang's economic development and industrial development have gradually accelerated,and the development of the automobile industry has entered a new era.It is of great significance to study the consumption demand of residents in the region.The analysis and prediction of Xinjiang residents' automobile consumption demand through micro factors and macro factors have certain reference significance for the government to solve the traffic problem and regulate the automobile market and infrastructure construction.Based on the analysis of the development history of civil vehicles in Xinjiang and the related theories of market consumption demand in microeconomics,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of consumer demand in Xinjiang,and analyzes the influencing factors from different angles according to the micro-to-macro ideas.For the impact of automobile consumption demand,the model of price elasticity and cointegration regression is used to study the micro and macro influencing factors of Xinjiang civil vehicle sales,and the recommendations of Xinjiang automobile consumer market and government are put forward through the demand price elasticity and the results of forecasting model.for reference.The main findings are the following:First,the current automobile consumption in Xinjiang is below the national average.At present,the main consumer market is Northern Xinjiang,and Urumqi is the main consumer city in Xinjiang.Consumer demand in Xinjiang has gradually shifted to SUV models,and the market share of cars has gradually decreased.New energy vehicle consumption has gradually warmed up with the help of new policies.Secondly,this paper analyzes the demand price function by the relationship between automobile sales and automobile price.The results show that the demand elasticity of the vehicles in the 5-15 million range is higher than that of the Xinjiangconsumers,and the elasticity of the models of more than 150,000 is lacking.The serious lack of flexibility of more than 10,000,the absolute value of the elasticity of demand for the overall price is less than 1 is 0.4393.Low-priced models are the mainstream of consumption and residents are more sensitive to their prices,and appropriate price cuts will lead to more sales profits.Finally,through the analysis of the macro-factor prediction model,the growth rate of automobile sales has gradually slowed down in recent years.As the overall growth rate of macro-society and social development in Xinjiang has decreased,the average annual sales volume from 2018 to 2020 is 347,100,and the sales growth has been decreasing year by year.At the same time,it was found that the purchase tax reduction policy was proposed in 2009 and 2015,which reduced the purchase price of automobiles,promoted the demand for automobile consumption,and lowered the vehicle purchase tax price,which caused the automobile sales to rise above the theoretical value.In summary,in view of the influencing factors and forecast results of Xinjiang's automobile sales,the car sellers and the government have provided several suggestions:(1)increase the sales of low-priced models and expand the sales market outside the capital;(2)high price The model meets the psychological needs of the target group as the selling point;(3)accelerate the regional economic construction;(4)advocate energy conservation and emission reduction to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles;(5)improve the education level to increase the income of residents to drive the demand for automobile consumption.