An Empirical Study On Bond Credit Rating Of Electric Power Industry In China

As a representative of advanced productivity and basic energy industry,the power industry plays a very important role in the rapid development of the national economy and the continuous improvement of society.With the improvement of the country’s economic strength,the demand for electricity continues to increase,and the sales of electricity further promote the development of the entire power industry.In order to achieve the expansion of production scale,the power industry urgently needs external financing,and the improvement of China’s capital market has created a good external environment for external financing of power companies.In this environment,power companies have given birth to bonds in order to obtain further financial support.The emergence of financing channels.On the basis of the gradual deepening of the power system reform,the scale of power companies’ bond issuance shows a geometric growth,but the credit risk associated with debt,coupled with the macroeconomic downturn,the background of the products produced by the whole society tends to be saturated,on the power The solvency of enterprises has a great impact,so scientific and effective credit risk assessment is indispensable,and credit ratings provide important reference for credit evaluation to company managers,investors and countries in a simple and clear way.In order to study the credit rating of power enterprise bonds,based on the rating methods and rating indicators of domestic and international authoritative rating agencies,this paper conducts a quantitative index system for credit rating of power companies from the aspects of external environment,internal environment and bond characteristics.After construction,25 quantitative indicators were selected,and based on the constructed quantitative index system,39 power enterprise bonds issued during 2011 to 2018 were taken as samples,and the quantitative indicators were analyzed by factor analysis,and SPSS19.0 was adopted.The software reduces the dimension of the quantitative indicators,obtains the common factor,eliminates the correlation between the quantitative indicators,and then uses the cluster analysis to construct the model,and conducts empirical analysis,and then compares the empirical results with the ratings of the rating agencies.The empirical results were found to be good.In order to further study the credit rating of power enterprise bonds,this paper based on the above quantitative model,adding qualitative indicators,comprehensively considering quantitative indicators and qualitative indicators,using AHP to find another set of credit rating index system applicable to China’s power industry,and selecting China’s current largest hydropower listed company,China Yangtze Power Co.,Ltd.and the powerful Jilin Electric Power Co.,Ltd.conducted empirical research,and compared the ratings of rating and rating agencies by rating analysis.It is found that the fitting effect is better,and the capital market data from January 2017 to September 2018 is used in the model evaluation part.The KMV model is used to determine the market default implied default probability to see if it meets the “high rating corresponding low default rate,low.The basic criteria for rating corresponds to the high default rate.The empirical results show that the rating results of the analytic model are consistent with the above basic principles.In the construction of the bond credit rating index system,this paper not only considers the company’s financial indicators,but also considers other non-financial quantitative indicators,and integrates into the industry characteristics,adding qualitative indicators,considering the factors are more comprehensive,not only that,this article will be the rating model Further validation was carried out to make the model more scientific and effective,and its rating results were more reliable.