Research On Expressway PPP Project Concession Pricing Mechanism Based On CAPM Model

The constructions and operations of expressway,as an important gateway for the development of the national economy,have played a significant role in promoting the update and development of China’s public infrastructure.At the stage of the state’s vigorous planning of the comprehensive transportation network,it is also an important issue for China to give full play to the use of expressway.In recent years,with the application of the franchise model in China’s transportation field,ensuring the balance of interests among government departments,social capital,and the public has become a hot research issue,which shows that the discussion on the pricing standard of highway tolls is key.Only a scientific and reasonable pricing mechanism can ensure a satisfactory multilateral relationship among the three parties,thereby enhancing the driving force of the expressway on social and economic development.However,the application of the franchise model in various fields in China is still in the exploratory stage.Therefore,it is particularly important to study the pricing mechanism of expressway PPP projects.The thesis firstly introduces the economic attributes of public infrastructure projects,the expressway project on theory discussion combined with theory of franchising,At the same time,the existing domestic and foreign public goods pricing principles are analyzed and their applicability to expressway projects is analyzed.The current domestic toll pricing methods are summarized and evaluated.Secondly,the thesis focuses on the related factors that affect pricing standard,fully considering the project operating costs,investment income,dynamic change in traffic flow and other factors,through the CAPM Model(Capital Assets Pricing Model)to determine the investment yield criteria,using regression analysis method to predict the future traffic volume,based on the net present value theory,theory of differential benefit expressway PPP project concession pricing model.The thesis also studies the application of the franchise pricing mechanism,and values the variables in the CAPM model in turn,so as to determine the investment income standard of the expressway PPP project.Based on 19 years of traffic data collected from 6 expressways in the Sichuan area,analysis including GDP,per capita GDP,the number of town worker collective economic units,the influence of car ownership,traffic trends of macroeconomic factors,determine the model of traffic flow dynamic change,predict the future traffic volume of Chenganyu expressway in sichuan section.Finally,the theory of differential benefit is quantitatively analyzed,and the reasonable range of toll rate is determined by calculation,so as to obtain a price guidance scheme with both economic and social benefits.Finally,according to the empirical calculation,the results show that the concession pricing model proposed in the thesis is basically the same as the rate standard published by sichuan provincial transportation department,and is within the range of differential benefit value,so as to verify the rationality of the pricing model.By calculating the result still can draw the following conclusion: as the traffic time increasing,shing of sichuan chengyu expressway traffic flow will also rise,the charge standard should be cut at the same time,and according to the state department of transportation in recent years to reduce the related policies of expressway tolls,also suggests that the thesis established the concession pricing model directly responded to the call of national policy.