Research On Multi-demand Forecast Of High Speed Rail Express Under High-speed Rail Network Conditions

The main skeleton of China's railway "four horizontal and four vertical" has been basically completed,and a modern high-speed railway network with "eight vertical and eight horizontal" as the main channel is being built.With the improvement of the high railway network,the railway express capacity has been greatly improved.It is expected that by 2030,China's high-speed railway network will be basically connected into a network to achieve internal and external interconnection.With the deepening of the structural reform of the supply side,Representing the demand for diversified cargo transportation by letter documents,fresh food,e-commerce parcels,etc.it has high requirements for transportation safety,timeliness,reliability and convenience.This paper forecasts the diversified demand for high-speed rail express,and provides reference for the design and operation of high-speed rail express products after the high-speed rail is gradually formed into the network.Taking this as a starting point,this paper has done the following work:(1)Analysis of the diversified demand of railway freight transportation under the conditions of high-speed railway networkThe current situation of railway express products in the market and the different modes of transport in the express market are compared.It is proposed that the high-speed rail express objects are mainly high value-added products,and then the cargo owners' demand and source types are subdivided.(2)Total forecast of high value-added freight demandGrey correlation analysis method is used to analyze the influencing factors of high value-added freight volume,and the influencing factors with high correlation degree are selected.The theory and method of freight volume forecasting are summarized and analyzed.Time series,multiple linear regression and BP neural nerve are used respectively.The network model and the combined prediction model are used for prediction.(3)Forecast of market share ratio of various modes of transportationBased on the demand of high value-added goods,considering the factors affecting the competitiveness of various modes of transportation in the express market,an improved Logit model was constructed,and the sharing rate of various modes of transportation was solved by Matlab software.(4)Multi-demand forecast of high-speed rail express under high-speed rail network conditionsAccording to the different demand characteristics of the high-speed rail express object,the demand characteristics are reasonably valued,and the proportion of high-speed rail express transportation demanded by various types of freight demand is calculated,and the multi-demand demand of high-speed rail express is obtained according to the calculation.