| In 2011,the Brazilian Ministry of Transportation implemented the National Plan for Logistics and Transportation.It has a projection of expansion and reformulation of the railway network for freight and passenger in the order of 50%.The Government presented a proposal for a High-Speed Rail(HSR)project to connect the cities of Campinas,Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro with vehicles characterized by an average speed of 250 km/h.Another HSR project proposed is to connect the cities of Curitiba and Sao Paulo,one of the busiest corridors for passenger transport,however,nowadays is very difficult to find studies dedicated for this possible rail line,or even isolated studies dedicated to analyzing the demand between this corridor.Due to the interest of the government regarding the implementation of this new rail line for passengers,it is necessary to make many studies to support such project.Demand forecasting studies are essential to support structuring the financial and operational modeling of a project.This thesis aims to access different passenger demand forecasting models and to select better passenger demand forecasting model for the corridor Curitiba-Sao Paulo.As an investigative part of the work,the current scenario of the transportation system between the two cities selected for this thesis was made.For this purpose,the performance of the highways and airports,as well as its problems and physical needs were analyzed.In order to project the suitable model for forecast demand in this study,a bibliographic review of methods,factors and variables that can be used to estimate the demand for rail transport systems was presented.An overview of the data inputs required for the transport models,the associated collection approaches and the techniques used in transport model development was summarized.The highway data was computed according to traffic information provide by annual government reports,as well as the airline data.A regional economic data was also employed to acquire the trend of passenger demand.Then,the analysis of estimating of passenger demand forecasting was applied by using an adaptation of the classic four-stage passenger demand forecasting model.In this model,the travel generation stage was designed to include variables that influence the frequency of travel.The travel distribution was designed to determine the gravitational factor of attraction of each destination,based on the values of trip production and its respective cost.Finally,the model of choice mode was designed to allocate travel between all modes,based on user characteristics(e.g.income)and modes available(e.g.travel times).Data used for calibration included the existing sources of official publications.Existing socioeconomic data were available at the IBGE,while the published materials provided a source for travel times and fares.Finally,it was presented the conclusions and some recommendations for future work as well as a report of the limitations of this research. |
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