Comprehensive Evaluation Of Dam Failure Consequences Based On Cloud Matter Element Method

The number of reservoirs built in our country is in the forefront of the world,which brings huge benefits to the national social and economic development,but also makes our country face the greater risk of dam failure accident.Dam failure of reservoir has the nature of low risk and high loss.Once dam failure occurs,it will cause a huge threat to the life and property of the people in the lower reaches and bring a heavy blow to the economic development of the country.The loss consequence caused by dam failure accident includes life loss,economic loss,environmental impact and societal impact,so the comprehensive evaluation of dam failure consequence is a complex process with many uncertainties.In view of the problems of less comprehensive consideration of the random fuzziness and incompatibility existing in the research on the subordination process between the evaluation index value and the evaluation grade standard in the dam failure consequence evaluation,this study introduces the matter element analysis and cloud model theory to carry out the comprehensive evaluation on the dam failure consequence.The main contents are as follows:(1)Establishment of comprehensive evaluation index system and classification of dam failure consequences.By analyzing the behavior characteristics of dam failure flood and combining with the existing research results,an index system including 4primary evaluation indexes and 24 secondary evaluation indexes is established.In addition,referring to the existing laws,regulations and research results,the severity levels of each evaluation index are divided into mild,general,medium,serious and extremely serious.(2)Weight analysis of evaluation indexes based on genetic analytic hierarchy process.In view of the problem that the traditional analytic hierarchy process(AHP)considers the judgment matrix separately from the consistency test when determining the weight of evaluation indexes,and readjusts the judgment matrix when the consistency test is not satisfied.In this paper introduces genetic algorithm(GA)to improve the traditional AHP method,then determines the weight value of each evaluation index based on the improved genetic analytic hierarchy process(GA-AHP).(3)Construction of evaluation model based on cloud matter element method.In view of the incompatibility and random fuzziness between the evaluation index value and the evaluation grade standard in dam failure consequence evaluation,matter element analysis is introduced to solve the incompatibility when each evaluation index value belongs to each evaluation grade standard.At the same time,for the problem of low reliability of calculation results caused by ignoring the random fuzziness between evaluation values and evaluation grade standards when the matter element analysis treats the characteristic value V describing things as a fixed value,the cloud model theory is introduced,the cloud model digital eigenvalue(E_x,E_n,H_e)is used to replace V in the matter-element analysis to obtain the improved cloud matter element method,and the comprehensive evaluation model of dam failure consequences based on the cloud matter element method is constructed by combining the weight values of each evaluation index.(4)Engineering application.The comprehensive evaluation model of dam failure consequences based on cloud matter element method is applied to evaluate the severity level of dam failure consequences of Gongming Reservoir in Shenzhen.The results show that the comprehensive evaluation model of dam failure consequences based on cloud matter element method is reasonable and reliable,which can provide new methods and ideas for the study of comprehensive evaluation model of dam failure consequences.