Research On The Capacity Expansion Revamping Scheme Of Gaojin Railway Based On Traffic Forecast

With the rapid development of the economy and the improvement of people's living standards,the demand for railway passenger and cargo transportation has grown rapidly.The Gaojin Railway is located between Shenyang,Fuxin and Jinzhou and the important cities in the western part of Liaoning Province.Both ends of the line are connected to the Shenshan Line,and together with the Shendan Line and the Shenyang.Gaotai Mountain Section of the Shenshan Line constitute the entire territory of Liaoning Province.The implementation of the expansion of the Gaotaishan.Jinzhou railway has adapted to the rapid growth of Mengdong coal transportation and alleviated the coal energy gap in Liaoning Province and ensured the smoothness of the rear access of the Paxin line,and improved the service level of the regional railway network.The road network structure has been improved and the competitiveness of the railway has been enhanced.At the same time,it optimizes the layout of Jinzhou Port and expands the hinterland space of Jinzhou Port,which is of great significance to the sustainable development of the regional economy and the revitalization of the Northeast.With the rapid development of the urban economy along the Gaotaishan to Jinzhou,the passenger demand has exceeded the current capacity of the line,and it is particularly important to expand the Gaojin Railway.According to the current operation status of the Gaojin railway line,the passenger and freight volume in the future will be predicted.According to the results of passenger and cargo volume,the relevant expansion and transformation plan will be formulated.Firstly,this paper summarizes the internal and external factors affecting railway transportation based on the previous studies and analyzes the relevant measures to improve the railway transportation capacity.In addition to,this paper also proposes the necessity of the expansion of the Gaotaishan.Jinzhou railway.Secondly,this paper introduces the related methods of forecasting passenger flow.According to the operation status of the Gaotaishan.Jinzhou Railway,various models such as the "four.stage method" and the "elastic coefficient method" are used to predict the volume of passengers and passengers of the Gaojin Railway in the next year and the annual passenger and cargo volume of the railway.The forecast results show that the current transportation capacity of the Gaotaishan.Jinzhou Railway cannot meet the transportation capacity of the line in the future if it is not expanded.Finally,it takes the current situation of Gaojin Railway operation as an example to analyze.And the railway expansion and transformation plan is formulated based on the forecast results of passenger and cargo volume.