Analysis On The Balance Of Supply And Demand For Land Island Transport Ship Capacity Based On System Dynamics

As an important part of the grass-roots transportation system,the Land Island Waterway Transportation System has played a supporting role in the economic development of the coastline islands.With the rapid development of the coastal economy and the further promotion and exploration of the island tourism industry,land island transportation has also diversified from merely solving the travel of island permanent residents to the export of island-specific seafood and the transportation of island sightseeing tourism.In recent years,the growth of passenger transportation demand has been higher than the growth rate of transportation capacity.Under the severe environment of today's land island transportation system,if the shipping company can configure the ship reasonably,then it can meet the transportation demand.The land island transportation system is a multi-variable,multi-feedback,non-linear complex system.The elements of the system restrict each other.It is very important to describe the dynamic mechanism scientifically and reasonably.Therefore,based on the analysis of the current situation of land island transportation,this paper adopts the system dynamics method to first determine the causality between land island transportation in Liaoning Province and regional economy,population,passenger transportation,freight and fleet size,etc.The system dynamics model of island transportation supply-demand balance analysis,and using this model to carry out Liaoning province land island transportation passenger volume forecast and supply-demand balance analysis,take Huludao as an example to carry out relevant scenario simulation,and finally,the analysis obtained The corresponding development proposals provide relevant theoretical basis and decision-making reference for the strategic planning of water transportation in Liaoning Province and even the country,and put a force into the sustainable development of the whole society.The forecast results show that with economic development and policy adjustments,China's demand for land transportation and passenger transportation continues to expand,and the demand for vehicle traffic increases slowly.The supply capacity of ships is increasing but the growth rate is insufficient.Slow downThe research results are of great significance to the theoretical exploration of regional land transportation in China,and provide a good theoretical basis and reference for solving practical problems.As an important part of the waterway,land island transportation has its particularity.Through the analysis of the balance of supply and demand of land island transportation,the adjustment of the capacity structure,the improvement of the fleet utilization rate,the avoidance of passenger retention problems,etc.It will be of great significance to ensure the safe and convenient travel of the people,serve the people's livelihood on the islands,and promote local economic development.