Coupling Analysis Of Water Supply And Demand Of The Diversion Project From Yellow River To Baiyangdian

Diversion of the Yellow River for Hebei province and Baiyangdian water supply project(the diversion project from Yellow River to Baiyangdian),which to solve the problems of water shortage of agricultural irrigation and over-extraction of groundwater in the areas along the project and to carry out ecological replenishment to Baiyangdian.The project spans the two major basins of the Yellow River and Haihe river,and runs through 6 cities and 26 counties(cities and districts).As the water source area and water demand area belong to different basins,the available water supply and its time of the water source area are different from the water demand and its time of the water demand area.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the supply and demand balance and coupling analysis.Taking Baiyangdian and the agricultural irrigation area along the project as the main research object,The water source of the Yellow River in different level years,the water replenishment of Baiyangdian in different level years and the water demand of the irrigation areas along the line were analyzed.The relationship between water source and demand of water supply area and water demand area is analyzed reasonably in order to provide reference for project operation and dispatching.The main research contents of this article are:(1)Using the measured water level data of Baiyangdian from 1920 to 2016,tthe M-K mutation test was used to determine that the Baiyangdian water level variation point was 1963 and 1965,and the decline trend was significant after 1983.By choosing years extreme water level and duration of the certain water level,analyzes the Baiyangdian water level features in recent years,and the changes of Baiyangdian water level within the year were divided into three stages:March 1 to June 1,and June 1 to October 1,October 1 to March 1,and March 1 and October 1 were determined as the node dates of Baiyangdian water level changes.Monthly minimum water level frequency method and annual distribution method were adopted to obtain the change process of water level in different levels each year.By selecting different typical years,the annual water demand of Baiyangdian at different levels year was determined as 680 million m3,620 million m 3,and 560 million m3;puts forward the supplementing water plan from Yellow River to Baiyangdian:when the water level of Baiyangdian water on October 1 is 6.96 m,it is not necessary to supply water to Baiyangdian;when the water level of Baiyangdian water on October 1 is 6.44 m and 5.66 m respectively,it is necessary to supply water to Baiyangdian through the project of 121 million m3 and 176 million m3;when the water level of Baiyangdian on August 16 is 5.34 m,the project will be started immediately for water diversion and supply water to Baiyangdian of 158 million m3,which will end at the beginning of November and continue to supply water of 42 million m3 in January of the next year.(2)Select project in 1981-2010 annual precipitation data of 27 counties along the analysis Hebei in wheat,corn,cotton three kinds of crops in different fertility period precipitation,showed that wheat fertility period precipitation at least.The annual net water demand of the irrigated area is 368 million m3 and the gross water demand is 504 million m3.The water demand of rural water network construction is 0.0033 million m3.(3)The Copula method was applied to the runoff data of the Yellow River and Baiyangdian from 1956 to 2000 to construct a two-dimensional runoff joint distribution model between the source and receiving areas of the Yellow River and Baiyangdian.The probability of dryness is 0.5623.Based on the runoff data of the Yellow River and Baiyangdian from 1956 to 2000,a two-dimensional joint distribution model of the Yellow River and Baiyangdian in the water source area and Baiyangdian in the water demand area is established,between Yellow River and Baiyangdian the probability of synchronization and synchronic between the two is 43.77%and 56.23%respectively,The probability of normal water transfer is 91.99%,which shows that the Yellow River water is good for supplying Baiyangdian.The available water supply of the Yellow River is analyzed through the Yellow River distribution plan and flow control index,and the annual available water supply of the Yellow River is determined to be 680 million m3,620 million m3 and 560 million m3 at different levels.Based on the coupling analysis of the water supply capacity of the Yellow River,the water replenishment capacity of Baiyangdian and the water demand of the irrigation area,The total water diversion from the main trunk canal in Handan,Xingtai,Hengshui,Cangzhou and Langfang was determined to be 44 million m3?16 million m3?15 million m3?23 million m3 and 300 million m3,respectively.The guarantee degree of irrigation water is 46.67%.