Pre-warning System Of Distribute Network Based On Grey Markov Model

During the operation of the distribution network,there are more and more phenomena such as load access,environmental corrosion,and heat generation cause cable insulation aging and equipment damage.Among them,cable damage will directly affect the safe and reliable operation of the distribution network and cause large-scale power outages for units and residents.Due to the complex environment of the power system,regular inspection of the distribution network requires a lot of manpower and material resources,and some hidden dangers are difficult to find in time.Therefore,design a distribution network pre-warning system based on intelligent prediction technology to find hidden faults in time.Ensuring the stable operation of the distribution network has become an urgent problem for the power sector.By analyzing the pre-warning methods and existing problems of the distribution network at home and abroad,combining the actual needs of the project and the application of related systems,according to changes in distribution network voltage and cable temperature to exploring the distribution network pre-warning system.First,according to the development goals of the pre-warning system,the data collected by the power equipment is analyzed,and a grey Markov prediction model of the distribution network voltage and cable temperature is proposed.Through level compare examination and smooth ratio examination on the original voltage data,establish a grey Markov voltage prediction model,fit the data change trend,and update the original data in real time,optimize thev oltage prediction model,overcome the interference of the random fluctuation of the distribution network voltage on the prediction result,and effectively improve the accuracy of the voltage prediction.Secondly,the grey Markov model is used to predict the cable temperature,and the cable temperature pre-warning model is used to judge the fault to improve the accuracy of the temperature pre-warning.Then,according to the requirements and realization goals of the distribution network pre-warning system,combined with B/S framework,MVC,SQL Server database and other technologies,the distribution network voltage and cable temperature pre-warning model was applied to the Web software platform.,and design sequentially from system function modules,databases,etc.Finally,through the developed system prototype,functions such as real-time data monitoring,fault pre-warning,and system management are realized.This paper establishes a distribution network voltage and cable temperature prediction model,and verifies the accuracy of the model through experiments.Based on this,a distribution network pre-warning system is developed to predict possible failures,improve the accuracy of troubleshooting and reduce distribution Network system maintenance costs.