Research On Urban EV Charging Load Prediction And Charging Facility Planning

With the rapid development of social economy,energy shortage and environmental pollution have become the problems that people must face and solve.Electric vehicles can effectively reduce the emission of pollutants and reduce the dependence on fossil energy.Scientific and reasonable planning and operation of charging facilities is the key to the large-scale popularization of EV,which can effectively reduce the influence of EV charging load on the operation of distribution network.Therefore,this paper analyzes the charging rules of common types of electric vehicles,studies the charging load prediction and charging facility planning of Qinhuangdao,and provides theoretical support for the promotion and application of urban electric vehicles.The main research contents are as follows:Firstly,the charging modes and charging rules of electric vehicles are analyzed.Electric vehicles are divided into six types: bus,taxi,official vehicle,special vehicle,private car and rental car.According to the different charging rules,they are divided into four categories.Charging modes and charging facilities of different types of EV are different,and charging behavior characteristics of various EV are given.Four charging law models of different types of electric vehicles are proposed.Then,the charging load of EV is predicted,and the load prediction index system of EV category,battery capacity and initial charge,initial charging time,daily driving distance and charging power is established,and each index is calculated and analyzed according to EV type.At the same time,aiming at the uncertainty of EV charging behavior,a charging load prediction method based on monte carlo method is proposed.The total charging load curve is formed by the superposition of four EV load curves,and the proportion of EV charging load in the total load distribution network in 2025 and 2030 is calculated by simulation.The validity of the method is verified.Finally,a charging facility planning method based on the charging demand coefficient of partition space is proposed.According to the established technical route and planning principle,the demand quantity of charging pile is calculated from the perspective of EV charging energy.The spatial charging demand coefficient was calculated based on three indexes: the degree of traffic congestion,the characteristics of partition attributes and the economic development.Based on the simulation of Qinhuangdao urban charging facility planning,the fixed capacity of charging facility is analyzed.The influence of public,private and social charging facilities planning on four different types of EV is studied,and the composition ratio between quick charging pile and conventional charging pile of each charging station is calculated.The simulation results verify the rationality of the proposed method.