Study On The Influencing Factors And Prediction Of The Demand For Prefabricated Components

At present,the state vigorously promotes the assembly building.The governments at all levels have formulated relevant policies and promulgated corresponding measures to promote the development of the assembly building.As the basic component of assembly building,the demand of prefabricated components directly reflects the development of assembly building.However,with the development of assembly building and the production of a large number of prefabricated component plants,domestic prefabricated component factories are facing or are about to face problems such as disorder of prefabricated factory construction,excess capacity,waste of resources and so on.In order to make the assembly construction industry develop reasonably and orderly,to provide basic data support for the construction of prefabricated component factories,and to provide reference for the formulation of relevant policies by relevant departments of the state.In this context,this paper studies the influencing factors of prefabricated component demand scientifically and systematically,and forecasts and analyzes the demand of prefabricated component..Firstly,this paper makes a literature review and summary of the research status of prefabricated components and related demand factors,demand forecasting research at home and abroad.After screening the influencing factors of prefabricated component demand,the grey relational degree analysis based on the improved analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the relational degree of economic factors,non-economic factors and policy factors,and rank the relational degree.Then the relational degree of each influencing factor and the demand of prefabricated component is analyzed.Finally,the influencing factors system of prefabricated component demand is determined.Then combined with the characteristics of the demand of prefabricated components,the selection of the demand prediction method of prefabricated components is carried out.Finally,RBF neural network is used to predict the demand of prefabricated concrete components.Based on the data of Beijing,the variables in the model are modeled and the relevant parameters are determined,and the demand prediction model of prefabricated concrete components based on RBF neural network is constructed.Using MATLAB software to develop the interactive software of demand forecasting of prefabricated components,which simplifies the process of demand forecasting,makes the demand forecasting of prefabricated components more operational,more intuitive display of the influencing factors and the changes of the demand of prefabricated components over the years.At last,the paper summarizes and prospects,and gives some suggestions combined with the economic environment and policy environment of Beijing.This study concludes that the policy factor is the key factor of the demand for prefabricated components.Through the RBF model to predict the demand for prefabricated components in Beijing,the demand for prefabricated components in 2019 and 2025 is 610000 m3 and 1407200 m3 respectively.Combined with the current supply of prefabricated components,the supply in 2019 can meet the short-term demand,but the current capacity is lower than the predicted demand in 2025.This conclusion can provide reference for the development of prefabricated construction industry and prefabricated component industry.