Risk Management Of Community Power Distribution System

The safety analysis and risk assessment of community power distribution system is the focus of current research,and also the key to the safe operation of community power distribution system,because the safe operation of community power distribution system is highly dependent on the majority of power users.Community power distribution system is the terminal of power network.Risk assessment based on reliability index is a standard method for risk assessment of power distribution system.However,the reliability index is not enough to reflect the essential security of community distribution system,which is manifested in the state of physical components and network fault events.At the same time,the reliability index is designed for long-term risk assessment,which focuses on static assessment.It is difficult to reflect the real-time dynamic change of community power distribution system risk,and cannot reflect the operation scenario of community power distribution system.Therefore,considering the internal security of community distribution system,dynamic risk assessment is a significant and challenging task.This paper proposes a new security dynamic risk assessment framework for community power distribution system based on bayesian network.Firstly,this paper combines ahp and expert knowledge to establish the evaluation index system of power distribution system risk assessment.Secondly,the bayesian network of evaluation index is constructed by using the historical data of distribution system,and the dynamic calculation of index weight is realized.Thirdly,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to combine the evaluation index system with its dynamic weight to realize the subjective and objective comprehensive evaluation of power distribution system risk.Fourth,on the basis of the above reliability indexes,the failure rate and failure events of physical components in community power distribution system are creatively introduced into the risk assessment,and a comprehensive risk index system is obtained.This index system considers the reliability index and inherent safety characteristic of community power distribution system and can quantitatively reflect the dynamic risk of community power distribution system.Finally,a dynamic risk analysis method based on fault tree and bayesian network is proposed.The feasibility and effectiveness of this method are verified by an example of community power distribution system.The experimental results show that the proposed risk assessment method for community power distribution system can effectively integrate the advantages of expert experience and bayesian learning method,realize the real-time dynamic comprehensive assessment of community power distribution system risk,and the reasonable safety measures derived can effectively reduce the risk of community power distribution system.