Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of High-speed Railway On Urban Economy Based On Threshold Regression Model

On August 1,2008,the Beijing-Tianjin inter-city railway,China's first high-speed railway,was opened.up to now,China's high-speed railway has been intensively operated by public transportation.In more than 10 years,the development of China's high-speed railway has undergone a qualitative leap,from scratch to now it has the world's longest operating mileage,the highest annual passenger volume,the largest construction scale and the most complete technical mastery,which has greatly saved social resources and played an irreplaceable role in promoting economic and social development,supporting the implementation of major national strategies and enhancing international influence.The high-speed railway from Shijiazhuang to Jinan was opened to traffic on December 28,2017.So far,the "four vertical and four horizontal" high-speed railway network proposed in 2008 has been completed perfectly and has formed many "meters" high-speed railway hubs such as Zhengzhou,Xi 'an and Wuhan.It is believed that the "eight vertical and eight horizontal" high-speed railway network era will soon come to an end.So,It is very significant to study the economic effects of high-speed railway to facilitate regional economic development and the planning and construction of high-speed railway network.First of all,this paper combs the research problems according to the actual situation,summarizes and combs the economic effects of high-speed railway from two aspects of high-speed railway and economic growth,high-speed railway and industrial structure on the basis of studying the relevant research results at home and abroad,and makes a brief comment.Secondly,this paper selects the growth axis theory,the new economic geography theory and the growth pole theory to analyze the economic effects of high-speed railway.On this basis,aiming at the research goal,the paper puts forward the impact mechanism of high-speed railway on cities along the line from two aspects of the positive and negative effects of high-speed railway on urban economy.Finally,the innovative threshold regression model is used to study the economic effects of high-speed railway.The panel data of 282 cities above prefecture level in China from2008 to 2017 are used.The number of high-speed railway stops is taken as the variable of high-speed railway opening.The threshold regression model is established with GDP per capita,household registration population at the end of the year,the proportion of added value in secondary industry,the proportion of added value in tertiary industry,theinvestment in fixed assets of the whole society and the general financial expenditure of local governments as the threshold variables to examine the threshold effects of high-speed railway on urban economic growth.The results show that:(1)On the whole,high-speed railway has a significant positive effect on the economic growth of cities along the line.(2)Comparatively speaking,the early development of high-speed railway has a significant positive impact on cities with extremely low development level,and the later promotes the coordinated development of regional economy through stronger diffusion effect on cities with high development level.(3)The difference in urban industrial structure has a significant threshold effect on the economic effect of high-speed railway.Cities with better secondary and tertiary industries are more likely to benefit from the opening and operation of high-speed railway.(4)Social capital investment has a threshold effect in the economic effect of high-speed railway.When the investment in fixed assets of the whole society is more than 16,088,254 million yuan,the economic effect of high-speed railway is about 4 times as high as the threshold value.(5)Government size is a threshold variable that significantly affects the economic effect of high-speed railway.The threshold value is 338.9164 million yuan of general government expenditure.When the general government expenditure reaches the threshold value,the impact coefficient of high-speed railway on urban economic growth is about 0.29,while when it does not reach the threshold value,the impact coefficient is only 0.07.