The Cause Analysis And Safety Evaluation Research Of Rural Low-grade Highway Traffic Accidents

The mileage of highway construction in our country is increasing linearly year by year,and the mileage of low-grade highways is the highest in all grade highways.For low-grade highways,the construction,maintenance and safety management of road infrastructure are often ignored,resulting in frequent traffic accidents.Particularly the traffic safety situation of rural low-grade highways is worrying.Based on this situation,this paper integrates the field survey data with historical traffic accident data of a lowgrade highway in Suichang County,Jiangsu Province.Using statistical analysis,gray correlation analysis,accident tree model,and Bayesian network to carry out research on rural low-grade highway traffic safety status,accident correlation,accident cause,road section safety.Based on historical accident data,this article first aims at the similarities and differences of the distribution characteristics of traffic accidents between village segments and ordinary road segments of rural low-grade highways.Using statistical analysis to explore the status,time and space distribution characteristics of traffic accidents.And summarize the factors affecting rural low-grade road traffic accidents from four aspects: people,vehicles,roads and environment.In order to grasp the correlation between various influencing factors and accidents,using gray correlation theory to solve the correlation between each variable with the number of accidents and the number of casualties.To further investigate the traffic causation of rural low-grade highway,based on the related theory of accident tree,establish the accident tree model under different accident forms of rural low-grade highway.Determine the probability of various types of traffic accidents and the importance of basic events through qualitative and quantitative analysis.Using the BNT toolbox function in MATLAB software,construct a Bayesian network model for road conditions and traffic accidents based on the Bayesian network principle.The model can be used to determine the traffic safety level of rural low-grade highway sections under a single factor or a combination of multiple factors.The evaluation results of the model indicate that the intersection with only signs or markings and poor sight distance has the worst safety.Finally,based on the above analysis,the prevention countermeasures of traffic accident for rural low-grade highway are proposed to improve the road traffic safety level.