The Impact Of Oil Price Fluctuation And Fiscal Policy On Technological Progress Of New Energy Industry

Clean and low-carbon energy has become the main target in the adjustment of China’s energy structure.Fossil fuel price fluctuations and government fiscal policies are important factors affecting the technological progress of new energy industries.The government’s impact on fossil fuel prices is mainly through the regulation of taxinclusive oil prices.Whether the rise in oil prices and the government’s fiscal policy will affect the technological progress of the new energy industry and the intrinsic impact mechanism are issues that need to be solved urgently.The paper provides mathematical interpretation of the effects of oil prices and subsidy on expected profit and technological progress rate at different stages of China’s new energy Industry.From the perspective of Industrial chain,this paper also classifies subsidy policy into Direct R & D,Intermediate production subsidy and terminal consumption subsidy,and based on Acemoglu’s biased technological progress framework a two-sector endogenous economic growth model is constructed.Furthermore,by combining China’s actual carbon emissions with energy patent data calibration and numerical simulation analysis are performed.The paper also provides mathematical interpretation of the effects of oil price and fiscal policy on expected profit and technological progress rate at different stages of China’s new energy Industry.Furthermore,by combining China’s actual energy prices with energy patent data and previous studies calibration and numerical simulation analysis are performed.In order to verify the conclusions,a negative binomial regression method was used for empirical analysis based on accumulated new energy patents,oil price indexes,and accumulated new energy policies from 1998 to 2016 in 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions of China.Results of the studies demonstrate that:(1)the technical progress rate ratio of new energy and traditional fossil energy are affected by the R&D success rate of the two sectors,subsidy policy,current product price,current energy price,previous technology level,and current sector size.There is a path-dependent effect on technological progress.The rise in tax-inclusive oil prices and the implementation of subsidy policies will improve the expected profits and the technical progress rate ratio.(2)For a given subsidy ratio,the incentive effect on the expected profit and technological progress rate is optimal at the production stage.Compared with the new energy subsidy policy,the impact of oil price fluctuations on the development of new energy technologies is weak.(3)Empirical research shows that there is a significant positive correlation between the number of new energy patents in China and oil prices and cumulative policies.With every 1% increase in oil prices,new energy technology patents will increase by 0.16 percentage points,and with every 1% increase in the cumulative number of new energy policies,new energy technology patents will rise 0.05%.Finally,based on the conclusions of the study,policy recommendations are given from three aspects: the formation mechanism of refined oil price,the choice of subsidy policy and the breaking of “path dependence”.