Natural Risk Assessment And Evaluation Of Offshore Wind Energy Resources Of The Northeast Passage

In the context of global climate change and "The Belt and Road" strategic vision,the potential value of the Northeast Passage and Arctic wind resources is valued by all countries,and if the Northeast Passage is to be opened in the future,it may change the existing maritime trade pattern.But limited by the lack of appropriate research methods and data in the past,the study of the natural risk of the Northeast Passage and the evaluation of Arctic wind energy resources were at the initial stage.Thanks to the breakthrough in research methods made by scholars in different countries,and the high spatial and temporal resolution data provided by international agencies such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),the study in the Northeast Passage natural risk and Arctic wind energy assessment could be done.The natural risk of the Northeast Passage and the wind energy of the Arctic sea were studied by establishing an evaluation index system in this paper.The main results and points are as follows:1)Based on the existing problems and shortcomings,the natural risk assessment model of the Northeast Passage is established,and evaluated quantitatively based on F-AHP and Rough Set Theory.To provide information support for the full opening of the Northeast Passage.The study shows that the natural risk of the Northeast Passage is declining,and the natural risk is the lowest in the study area in 2015.The spatial distribution of natural risk value in Northeast Passage shows the trend of "northeast — southwest" from high to low.The navigation period(July — September)is confirmed based on risk quantification.In the index system,sea ice contributed the most to natural risk,followed by Wind speed,water depth and temperature.Wind speed is high in the Northeast Passage and its surrounding sea.There could have navigation risks,but there are potential prospects for offshore wind energy development.2)Strait is the traffic arteries,shipping hub,and "throat" of sea.According to the natural risk assessment of the Northeast Passage,it is found that the natural risk of the key Strait restricts the navigability of the Northeast Passage.Based on the established natural risk assessment model,the natural risk of the three-key strait in the Northeast Passage was studied.The study shows that the natural risk of the key strait in the Northeast Passage is declining,which is favorable to the comprehensive navigation;The natural risk of the Red Army Strait is much higher than the other two straits,which is not suitable for navigation;The natural risk of the Vilkitskogo Strait is slightly greater than that of the De Lang Strait,but the two straits are navigable;The validity of the model is verified by comparing the risk value of six key straits,simulating the route and comparing with the actual route of Yong sheng.3)Based on the analysis of the indicators,we know that wind energy resources are more abundant in the Northeast Passage and its surrounding waters.In this paper,the wind energy resources of the Arctic are evaluated from wind power density,effective wind speed frequency,wind energy stability and wind direction.Then the offshore wind farm location model is established to identify the potential offshore wind farm location area based on NSGA-II.The study shows that the wind power density and Wind power density level in the study area shows the trend of "west high east and low",among which the wind power density is highest in the Barents Sea;The frequency of annual average effective wind speed shows obvious seasonal variation characteristics of single grain type.The valley of the effective wind speed appears in the summer,and the peak appears in winter,autumn and spring.The wind power density variation coefficient in the study area has obvious seasonal variation,and the wind speed in the eastern part of the Barents Sea and eastern Siberian Sea is relatively stable.The main wind direction is NE,NNE and ENE.The location model is used to identify the potential offshore wind farm location,and it is considered that wind power is suitable for the development of the southern waters of the Barents Sea.